Cincinnati is 4-0 and nobody seems to believe it. The Bearcats barely register in the AP poll, and they’re catching more than a touchdown against a 3-1 Arizona team that hasn’t covered a spread all season.
I understand the skepticism. Cincinnati has trailed in the second half of each of its last two games. It’s also making its first real road trip of the year for an 11 p.m. Eastern kickoff.
But when I strip these teams down to what they’ve done against real competition, I don’t see a touchdown’s worth of difference.
Cincinnati at Arizona: Odds and Game Info
- Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 3, 11 p.m. ET (8 p.m. local)
- Stadium: Casino Del Sol Stadium, Tucson, Ariz.
- TV: FOX
- Records: Cincinnati 4-0 (1-0 Big 12), Arizona 3-1 (0-1 Big 12)
- Spread: Arizona -7 to -7.5
- Total: 54.5 to 55
- Moneyline: Arizona -280 to -290, Cincinnati +225 to +235
- ATS this season: Cincinnati 3-1, Arizona 0-4
Seven is the key number, so shop carefully. Cincinnati +7.5 covers a one-touchdown loss, while +7 only pushes. Some books have hung -8.5, and if you find that, grab it.
If you like Arizona, you want -7 for the same reason.
Arizona -7.5 with a 54.5 total implies a final of about Arizona 31, Cincinnati 23.5. That’s the number I’m betting against.
Take Out the Cupcakes and These Teams Look the Same
Here’s how each team’s season has gone:
| Cincinnati | Arizona |
|---|---|
| Beat Boston College 34-15 | Beat Northern Arizona 35-7 |
| Beat Western Carolina 62-10 | Lost at BYU 28-17 |
| Beat Miami (Ohio) 35-31 | Beat Northern Illinois 42-17 |
| Beat Kansas State 31-26 | Won at Washington State 34-24 |
Both teams played an FCS opponent. Remove those games and here’s what’s left:
| vs. FBS Opponents | Points Scored | Points Allowed |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati | 33.3 | 24.0 |
| Arizona | 31.0 | 23.0 |
That’s nearly a dead heat. The power ratings tell a similar story. The major systems have these teams in the same neighborhood, and ESPN’s FPI gives Arizona only about a 56 percent chance to win. Arizona does get home field, and I’m factoring that in. But 7.5 points is asking for more than that.
Cincinnati’s Run Game Is the Real Deal
Cincinnati runs the ball as well as almost anyone in the country. It averages 270 rushing yards per game at 6.5 yards per carry.
Yes, 418 of those yards came against Western Carolina. But the Bearcats also ran for 254 against Boston College and 271 against Kansas State, so this isn’t just a cupcake stat.
The backfield is a two-man problem for any defense:
- Gi’Bran Payne: 368 yards, 7.2 per carry, two touchdowns. The Notre Dame transfer has three 100-yard games already.
- Cole Tabb: 311 yards on just 28 carries, an absurd 11.1 per carry, with six touchdowns. He scored three times in the second half against Kansas State.
Then there’s quarterback JC French IV, the transfer from Georgia Southern. He’s 70 of 94 for 796 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions. He’s also run for 164 yards and four scores. He isn’t asked to win games with his arm, but he hasn’t given one away either.
Against Kansas State, French threw just 13 passes and Cincinnati still won. That tells you what this offense wants to be.
Arizona’s Front Is the Obstacle
This is the matchup that decides the game. Arizona’s run defense has been good, allowing 80.3 yards per game and 4.0 yards per carry overall on offense… and holding opponents well below that on the ground. Chase Kennedy has 3.5 sacks in three games, and the Wildcats have 12 sacks as a team.
If Arizona stuffs Payne and Tabb on first and second down, French ends up in third-and-long, and that’s not his game. That’s the path to an Arizona cover.
If Cincinnati stays ahead of the chains, though, it can control the clock and keep Noah Fifita on the sideline. The Bearcats convert 50 percent of their third downs, and they’ve scored touchdowns on 16 of 18 red-zone trips. When this offense gets close, it finishes.
Noah Fifita Is Arizona’s Best Argument
Fifita is the best player on the field. He’s now Arizona’s all-time leading passer and has been sharp again this year, going 99 of 131 for 1,131 yards with 11 touchdowns and two interceptions.
Tre Spivey is his top target, with 19 catches for 278 yards and four scores. He had 129 yards and two touchdowns at Washington State. Freshman Caleb “Jet” Smith has also emerged as a big-play threat.
Cincinnati’s secondary is the soft spot on that roster, allowing 254 passing yards per game. Fifita will get his yards. What I care about is whether Arizona can put together full games, and so far it hasn’t.
Arizona Keeps Starting Slow
Look at how Arizona’s games have actually played out:
- At BYU, it led at halftime and got shut out in the second half.
- Against Northern Illinois, it fell behind 10-0 before rallying.
- At Washington State, it trailed 14-0 after a pick-six and was down 17-14 at the break.
The offensive line has been a concern. Arizona has allowed 12 sacks, including four in the first half against Northern Illinois. Brent Brennan has openly called out missed assignments in the run game. The Wildcats are also minus-3 in turnover margin.
Their kicker has been shaky too. Michael Salgado-Medina missed from 42 and had a 43-yarder blocked at Washington State before hitting from 27 and 51. That’s not ideal when you’re laying seven and a half.
None of this makes Arizona a bad team. It explains why the Wildcats are 0-4 against the spread, and why I don’t want to lay more than a touchdown with them.
Cincinnati’s Second Halves Have Been Special
Cincinnati has trailed by double digits in each of its last two games. It trailed Miami (Ohio) by 10 with under seven minutes left and scored twice to win. Against Kansas State it was down 10-0 and trailed 17-10 at halftime before running away in the third quarter.
For the season, the Bearcats have outscored opponents 107-27 after halftime. I don’t expect that pace to continue, but it says something about how this team is coached and conditioned. Scott Satterfield’s teams adjust.
The real concern is penalties. Cincinnati has 30 flags for 286 yards, which ranks near the bottom of FBS. In a loud road environment, that could stall drives the run game worked hard to build.
The Late Kick and the Road Trip
This is Cincinnati’s first game outside its home city all season. Even its neutral-site game against Miami (Ohio) was played across town. An 11 p.m. Eastern kickoff is the latest the program has started since a 2008 trip to Hawaii.
Satterfield said the team is flying out a day early to adjust. I count the travel and the late start as a real edge for Arizona. It’s part of why this line is where it is. I just think the market has already priced it in, and then some.
Both teams played Sept. 26, so there’s no rest edge either way. Cincinnati also has a bye next week, so it can empty the tank.
Injuries to Watch
Arizona is without receiver Gio Richardson, who led the team with 14 catches for 161 yards before a lower-body injury at BYU. Tight end Cole Rusk is questionable with a lower-leg injury, and safety Daylen Austin is out for the season.
For Cincinnati, tight end DaMari Witherspoon is listed as questionable. Otherwise the Bearcats look healthy. Check the Big 12 availability report closer to kickoff.
Weather won’t be a factor. It’ll be hot in Tucson during the day, but the game starts after sunset, and there’s little chance of rain.
The Series
These teams have met once. Arizona went into Nippert Stadium last November and won 30-24, with Fifita breaking the school’s career touchdown pass record that day.
Cincinnati will remember that, and I’d expect some motivation from the Bearcats. But both rosters have changed a lot since then, and one game isn’t a trend.
Cincinnati vs. Arizona Pick and Prediction
Arizona is the likelier winner. Fifita is the best player on the field, the Wildcats are at home and the late kick favors them.
But winning by eight or more is a different ask. Cincinnati runs the ball well enough to shorten the game, it doesn’t turn the ball over, and it scores touchdowns in the red zone. Arizona has been slow out of the gate, leaky up front and shaky on field goals. That’s the profile of a team that wins these games by a field goal, not two scores.
Here’s how I’d play it:
- Cincinnati +7.5: My best bet. I’d still play it at +7, but I like it less because a seven-point Arizona win pushes. If you find +8.5, take it.
- Cincinnati moneyline (+225 or better): A small sprinkle is reasonable. I think the Bearcats win this more than 30 percent of the time.
- Total: No play. My number lands slightly over 54.5, but not by enough to bet it.
Prediction: Arizona 30, Cincinnati 27
Best Bet: Cincinnati +7.5
Odds are subject to change. Please bet responsibly.