The Champions League will continue with Round 3 this Wednesday, October 5, and we have an intriguing duel between the former European champions, so don’t forget to read the best Chelsea vs. AC Milan betting pick and odds.

Chelsea is looking for the first win of the Champions League campaign when they welcome AC Milan at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea is a -133 favorite on Bovada Sportsbook; a draw is at +310, while AC Milan can be backed at +400. These teams will meet for the first time since 2016 and in their first competitive game since 1999.

Chelsea is desperate for three points

Thomas Tuchel was relieved of his managerial duty at Chelsea following a shock 1-0 defeat to Dinamo Zagreb in the opening UEFA Champions League group game. Yet, Graham Potter’s reign began with a similarly disappointing result in the previous round (1-1 vs. Salzburg at home). A last-gasp league winner against Crystal Palace last weekend then kick-started the Potter era but a win here seems a must considering Chelsea failed to qualify from just one of their previous 18 UCL groups.

This stuttering Blues side has been the image of inconsistency this season, with every match they’ve played producing differing results (W4, D2, L3). Still, just six defeats across Chelsea’s last 32 UCL fixtures (W17, D9, L6) suggest that improvement could be just around the corner. Perhaps playing at Stamford Bridge will provide a further boost, as the two-time UCL winners have won without reply in six of their last eight competitive matches here (D1, L1).

Chelsea’s Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang looks to build on his first goal against what was his first senior club. Jorginho (knock) and Edouard Mendy (knee) are questionable, but the rest of the players are healthy and at Potter’s disposal.

Milan hoping to stay atop of the group

A convincing 3-1 win over Empoli at the weekend kept Italian champions AC Milan in touch with the Serie A leaders ahead of this crucial clash in London. Maintaining their unbeaten start in UCL action (W1, D1) may be tough, however, with no fewer than seven players out with injury for Milan, although manager Stefano Pioli was quick to highlight the positives stating: “It’s a chance for everyone to show that we’re a strong squad”.

The Rossoneri have already matched their points haul from last season’s UCL group when finishing bottom, and a repeat of that appears unlikely this time around given their record of qualifying from 12 of the last 13 group stages. In order to keep the good times rolling, Milan must end a run of three straight defeats to Premier League opponents, which includes home and away defeats to Liverpool in last season’s group stage.

Looking to thwart Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang will be former Chelsea man Fikayo Tomori – the AC Milan defender scored in one of their defeats against English outfit Liverpool last season. Pioli cannot count on Davide Calabria (thigh), Alessandro Florenzi (muscle), Theo Hernandez (muscle), Zlatan Ibrahimovic (knee), Mike Maignan (calf), Divock Origi (muscle), and Alexis Saelemaekers (knee). Simon Kjaer is questionable with a thigh injury.

Trends:

Chelsea:

  • Unbeaten in the last eight home games in all competitions
  • Scored in each of the last 20 home games

AC Milan:

  • Scored in nine of ten games this season

Chelsea vs. AC Milan Pick 

Chelsea failed to win nine of their last 11 encounters with Italian opponents at any venue (D3, L6), but they cannot afford to drop points here because their UCL knockout phase place will be jeopardized. The good news for the hosts is that they are pretty much complete in this game, which cannot be said for the Rossoneri, who will be without some key players. Graham Potter doesn’t have a UCL experience, which was evident in Chelsea’s draw with 1-1 Salzburg at Stamford Bridge. However, he will prove his worth with three points on Wednesday.

Pick: Chelsea to win (-133)

The Total

Chelsea is struggling on defense this season; they conceded in each of the last eight games, while they managed to score in six of those eight. On the other hand, AC Milan failed to score just once this season, while both teams scored in eight of their ten games so far. The Over 2.5 goals market is offering higher -110 odds, but in case Chelsea fails to win and it ends 1-1, I prefer to go with both teams to score.

Pick: BTTS YES (-120)