Xavier and UConn meet Thursday, March 12, 2026 at 7:00 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden (New York, NY) in the Big East Tournament quarterfinals (No. 10 seed Xavier vs No. 2 seed UConn).
UConn is priced as a heavy favorite on the moneyline and laying a big number on the spread, with a mid-150s total. Odds as of 9:03 a.m. ET on March 12, 2026.
Odds
These odds are from BetOnline.
| Market | Xavier | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +15.5 (-110) | -15.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +1060 | -2300 |
| Total | Over 151.5 (-115) | Under 151.5 (-105) |
Team Snapshot
This table summarizes current performance and style indicators.
| Team | Record (Home/Away/Neutral) | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff (pts/100) | Def Eff (pts/100) | Tempo (poss/40) | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xavier | 15-17 (12-6 / 1-10 / 2-1) | 3-7 | 16-16 | 106.4 | 108.2 | 73.6 | Tre Carroll questionable (undisclosed); Michael Wolf questionable (undisclosed) |
| UConn | 27-4 (15-2 / 9-2 / 3-0) | 7-3 | 11-20 | 114.5 | 94.8 | 68.7 | Jaylin Stewart out (knee) |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Xavier
Xavier enters off a March 11 win over Marquette at MSG, so this is a back-to-back with no travel but limited rest. Over the last 10 games, Xavier is 3-7 straight up with a 9-1 O/U run, driven more by defense slipping than offense spiking.
For the season, Xavier is scoring 78.7 points per game while allowing 80.3. The Musketeers’ best path to hanging around is shot-making and ball security: 36.7% from three, 10.0 turnovers per game (about a 13.6% turnover rate using 73.6 possessions per 40). The issue is the glass and defensive efficiency: -3.2 rebounds per game and opponents at 47.4% overall shooting with 34.6% from three.
UConn
UConn’s last game was March 7 at Marquette, so the Huskies come in with four full days between games and only the trip into New York. They are 7-3 straight up in their last 10, but just 4-6 ATS in that span, which matters with a number this big.
UConn’s profile is built to control games: 78.2 points per game scored, 65.3 allowed, and a +5.2 rebounding margin. Defensively, opponents are held to 40.1% shooting and 30.8% from three. Pace is slow (68.7 poss/40), and that tempo plus strong efficiency is why UConn can win comfortably without playing a track meet. One caution area is foul pressure: opponents average 21.8 free-throw attempts per game against UConn.
Matchup Keys
- Pace vs spread: UConn plays slow (68.7 poss/40). Fewer possessions generally make it harder to create separation big enough to cover -15.5 unless the efficiency gap is extreme.
- 3-point math: Xavier shoots 36.7% from three (9.4 makes per game) but also allows 34.6%. UConn allows 30.8% from three, a key counter to Xavier’s main scoring lever.
- Rebounding margin: UConn is +5.2 rebounds per game; Xavier is -3.2. If that plays out, Xavier’s backdoor cover chances shrink because empty possessions add up quickly.
- Turnovers and live-ball points: Xavier takes care of the ball (10.0 TO/g, ~13.6% TO rate). Against a favorite, that matters because it limits runouts and keeps the game from snowballing.
- Free throws: Both defenses send opponents to the line at volume (Xavier allows 20.3 FTA/g; UConn allows 21.8 FTA/g). If whistles pile up early, the total becomes more fragile and bench depth matters.
Best Bet
Xavier +15.5 (-110)
UConn is clearly the better team, but the spread is larger than UConn’s season scoring margin (+12.9), and their slow pace reduces the number of possessions available to bury an opponent. Xavier’s ability to protect the ball (10.0 turnovers per game, roughly a 13.6% turnover rate) also helps them avoid the quick 10-0 runs that kill underdogs. The biggest risk is fatigue on the back-to-back at MSG and Xavier’s negative rebounding margin, so this is strongest if Tre Carroll is active and not limited.
Projected Score
UConn 82, Xavier 68 (Total: 150)
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