UL Monroe visits Troy on Friday, February 27, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET (6:00 PM local) in a Sun Belt Conference game at Trojan Arena in Troy, Alabama.
Troy enters the final game of the regular season tied atop the Sun Belt at 11-6 in league play, while UL Monroe has struggled in conference at 1-16 and is trying to snap a multi-game skid.
Odds
Odds as of 11:01 AM ET on February 27, 2026, from Bookmaker.eu.
| Market | UL Monroe | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +18.5 (-102) | -18.5 (-120) |
| Moneyline | +1400 | -4000 |
| Total | Over 153.5 (-122) | Under 153.5 (EVEN) |
Team Snapshot
This table highlights current record shape, recent form, and core efficiency indicators.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff (pts/poss) | Def Eff (pts allowed/poss) | Tempo (poss/gm) | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UL Monroe | 4-26 (Road 1-14) | 1-9 | 16-12-0 | 0.99 | 1.20 | 72.9 | No major injuries reported |
| Troy | 19-11 (Home 9-3) | 5-5 | 15-13-0 | 1.14 | 1.04 | 72.3 | Theo Seng (lower body) has been sidelined; Jerrell Bellamy has started in his place |
Totals context: UL Monroe is 19-9-0 to the over this season, while Troy is 13-15-0 with a stronger recent lean to the under.
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
UL Monroe: fast pace, negative possession battles
UL Monroe’s last-10 results show how narrow their margin is: 1-9 straight up, but 7-3 ATS in that span. They have been more competitive than their record suggests, yet the underlying issues remain consistent, especially on the road (1-14).
From an efficiency standpoint, ULM’s profile is rough on both ends at this tempo. They play quickly (72.9 possessions per game) but produce just 0.99 points per possession while allowing 1.20, a combination that tends to create “run” vulnerability when they hit empty stretches. The rebounding gap is also significant: 32.6 rebounds per game versus 40.3 allowed, a -7.7 margin that makes it hard to survive missed shots and second-chance points.
Shooting is not a clear bailout. ULM is at 32.7% from three, and opponents have hit 34.6% against them. That matters in this matchup because Troy generates a large share of its scoring from the perimeter and from extended possessions created on the glass.
Troy: home control, better shot profile, and a major rebounding edge
Troy’s last-10 form is 5-5, but the broader home resume has been steady (9-3). Even without an “elite” shooting number, Troy’s offense has been productive at 80.5 points per game, supported by strong possession fundamentals: they rebound well, they generate volume threes, and they do not rely on a high turnover style to score.
The clearest matchup advantage is on the glass. Troy is averaging 38.4 rebounds per game and allowing 35.3, a +3.1 margin that contrasts sharply with ULM’s -7.7. Thomas Dowd’s rebounding production anchors that edge, and Troy’s ability to end possessions cleanly is a big reason their defensive results are more stable than ULM’s.
Injuries matter here because Troy’s rotation has had to adjust in the frontcourt. Theo Seng has been sidelined with a lower-body injury, and Jerrell Bellamy has started in his place. Bellamy is coming off a career-high 25 points against Louisiana, which is relevant because Troy can cover stretches without Seng if Bellamy continues to provide efficient scoring while Dowd stabilizes the rebounding base.
One more note that ties directly into the total: Troy’s recent games have trended lower scoring relative to market expectations, going 2-8 to the over in the last 10. Some of that is opponent-driven, but it also fits a common script for large favorites: once Troy gets control, the game can lose pace late.
Matchup stat table
This side-by-side pulls the most bet-relevant team stats into one view.
| Category | UL Monroe | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 72.2 | 80.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 83.3 | 73.9 |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.9% |
| Opponent 3PT% | 34.6% | 32.1% |
| Rebound margin | -7.7 | +3.1 |
| Turnover rate (offense) | 16.01% | 14.15% |
| Turnover rate forced (defense) | 13.66% | 15.27% |
| Tempo | 72.9 poss/gm | 72.3 poss/gm |
Matchup Keys
- Rebounding and second shots: Troy’s +3.1 rebound margin versus ULM’s -7.7 is the most direct path to separation. If Troy turns misses into extra possessions, ULM’s defense tends to break.
- 3-point prevention: Troy allows 32.1% from three, while ULM allows 34.6%. If Troy’s volume threes are merely average efficiency, ULM still has to keep up at a pace they often cannot sustain.
- Turnover math: Troy takes better care of the ball (14.15% turnover rate) and forces more mistakes (15.27% forced). That combination is important in a game with a big spread because it can create quick points that kill comeback attempts.
- Late-game pace risk for the total: With Troy’s recent under run (8 unders in the last 10), the key variable is whether ULM scores enough to keep Troy playing real possessions into the final 6 to 8 minutes.
- Rotation context: Monitor Troy’s frontcourt usage with Seng out. If Bellamy continues to score efficiently without defensive drop-off, Troy’s floor stays high.
Best Bet
Play: Under 153.5
The total is asking for sustained scoring across a matchup where one side (ULM) has struggled to generate efficient offense, especially away from home. Troy plays fast enough to create volume, but their recent results have skewed under because they can defend without gambling and they can control the glass, which reduces opponent second-chance scoring.
In a likely Troy-controlled script, the under benefits if the Trojans build a margin and the final segment becomes more half-court and substitution-heavy. The main concern is that ULM’s defense can allow efficient Troy offense early, so the under looks best if ULM’s scoring stays closer to its lower-end road output.
Projected Score
Troy 86, UL Monroe 64 (Total: 150)
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