UIC heads west to face California on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 11:00 PM ET (8:00 PM local) at Haas Pavilion in Berkeley, California. Cal enters 21-11 overall and finished 9-9 in ACC play, while UIC is 19-15 overall after a 12-8 Missouri Valley season (5th place).
The market has California favored at home in a game lined in the high 140s, which fits two teams that play at a similar, middle-of-the-pack tempo but get there in different ways: Cal leans on shooting and free throws, while UIC’s biggest edge is on the offensive glass.
Odds
Odds as of 7:47 PM ET on March 16, 2026. Lines referenced from Bookmaker.
| Market | California | UIC |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-105) | +5.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -205 | +168 |
| Total | Over 149.5 (-110) | Under 149.5 (-110) |
Team Snapshot
Here’s a quick side-by-side snapshot of how these teams profile entering tip-off.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UIC | 19-15 | 6-4 | 17-15-0 | 1.12 pts/poss | 1.02 pts/poss allowed | 68.4 poss/gm | No injuries listed on the current team report. |
| California | 21-11 | 5-5 | 16-15-0 | 1.14 pts/poss | 1.01 pts/poss allowed | 69.8 poss/gm | Stephon Marbury II, Jovani Ruff, and Rytis Petraitis are listed questionable (undisclosed). |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
UIC Flames
UIC’s production has been more defense-and-possession driven than perimeter driven: the Flames shoot 32.3% from three, and their offensive rebounding is the engine (12.9 offensive boards per game, plus a 36.49% offensive rebounding rate). They also win the possession battle with pressure, forcing 13.6 turnovers per game (opponents committed 463 turnovers in 34 games) while holding up defensively at 69.97 points allowed per game.
The concern in this matchup is shot quality from deep against a Cal defense that holds opponents to 31.3% from three. If UIC does not create second-chance points, it can be tough to keep pace with a home favorite that’s comfortable scoring in the half court.
California Golden Bears
Cal’s offensive identity is clear: 77.9 points per game with 9.0 made threes per game, and an elite free-throw clip (77.9%). They protect the ball well (10.3 turnovers per game) and their defensive three-point number is strong (31.3% allowed), which matters against a UIC team that is not built to win by trading threes.
The weakness is on the glass. Cal is getting out-rebounded by 1.9 per game (34.8 rebounds for, 36.7 against), and that sets up a real leverage point against one of the better offensive-rebounding teams in the country.
Matchup Keys
- UIC offensive rebounding vs Cal rebounding: UIC is at 36.49% offensive rebounding, and Cal is -1.9 in rebounding margin.
- 3-point math: Cal shoots 36.1% from three and holds opponents to 31.3%, while UIC shoots 32.3% and allows 32.9%.
- Turnovers and shot volume: Cal’s offense runs a low turnover rate (13.43%), which helps offset UIC’s aggressive defensive turnover profile (17.01% forced).
- Tempo: Both sit near the same pace band (Cal 69.8, UIC 68.4 possessions per game), so this is more about efficiency than speed.
- Free throws: Cal’s 77.9% at the line is a late-game separator in a spread range around two possessions.
Best Bet
Under 149.5 (-110).
Both defenses profile as efficient on a per-possession basis (Cal 1.01 allowed, UIC 1.02 allowed), and UIC’s offense is not a high-volume 3-point team, which can keep scoring flatter if Cal’s perimeter defense travels. On the other side, UIC’s biggest advantage is offensive rebounding, but second-chance possessions often extend games without always spiking efficiency, especially if Cal avoids live-ball turnovers. With UIC on a cross-country trip and Cal likely controlling shot quality at home, the under has a cleaner path than laying points in a matchup where UIC can keep it close via extra possessions.
Projected Score
California 76, UIC 70
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