UConn heads to Michigan on Monday, April 6, 2026, with Michigan listed as the clear home favorite. TeamRankings lists the matchup at 8:50 p.m. ET (your game input lists 9:00 p.m. ET).
Michigan enters at No. 1 in TeamRankings’ predictive rating and has won five straight, most recently a 91-73 win over Arizona on April 4. UConn is No. 9 with its own five-game win streak, last beating Illinois 71-62 on April 4.
Odds
Odds as of 11:28 a.m. ET on April 5, 2026.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Michigan -7.5 (+100) UConn +7.5 (-122) | Michigan -310 UConn +245 | Over 144.5 (-102) Under 144.5 (-120) |
Team Snapshot
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan | 36-3 | Not listed (W5; last: W 91-73 vs Arizona on 4/4) | 14-19 | 1.193 pts/poss (No. 4) | 0.947 pts/poss allowed (No. 7) | 73.6 poss/g (No. 41) |
| UConn | 34-5 | Not listed (W5; last: W 71-62 vs Illinois on 4/4) | 11-19 | 1.133 pts/poss (No. 47) | 0.959 pts/poss allowed (No. 15) | 67.9 poss/g (No. 306) |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Michigan
Michigan’s baseline is pace plus shot quality: 73.6 possessions per game (fast) and elite shooting numbers, including 51.0% overall, 60.9% on 2s, and 58.8% effective FG.
Defensively, Michigan is built to travel because it limits efficiency rather than gambling: opponents shoot 38.4% overall with a 44.8% opponent eFG, and just 30.5% from 3. Michigan also commits only 15.5 fouls per game while drawing 19.4 fouls per game from opponents, which is a real lever if the whistle tightens.
UConn
UConn plays slower (67.9 possessions per game) and wins with defense first, allowing 65.1 points per game and ranking top-15 in defensive efficiency (0.959 points allowed per possession).
On offense, UConn’s profile is steadier than explosive: 47.7% shooting, 34.6% from 3, and a lower free-throw rate (FTA/FGA 0.301). The clearest “keep-it-close” path is ball security plus defense: UConn forces turnovers on 15.6% of opponent offensive plays, and it blocks shots at a top-15 rate (5.1 blocks per game).
Matchup Keys
- Tempo tug-of-war: Michigan is 73.6 poss/g (No. 41) vs UConn at 67.9 (No. 306). If Michigan dictates pace, the total gets stressed upward.
- Per-possession scoring vs per-possession defense: Michigan offense 1.193 pts/poss (No. 4) vs UConn defense 0.959 allowed (No. 15).
- 3-point math on both sides: Michigan hits 37.1% from 3, and UConn holds opponents to 30.5%. UConn shoots 34.6% from 3, and Michigan also holds opponents to 30.5%.
- Rebounding margin: Michigan averages 40.1 rebounds vs 31.5 allowed (+8.6), UConn is 36.4 vs 31.2 (+5.2). Michigan’s edge is larger and shows up most on the defensive glass (27.5 DREB/g).
- Turnovers and fouls: UConn forces turnovers (15.6% per opponent play), but Michigan’s offense is relatively stable at 14.2% turnovers per play and it wins the foul battle (15.5 PF/g committed, 19.4 PF/g drawn from opponents).
Best Bet
Over 144.5 (-102).
Michigan’s pace (73.6 poss/g) is a major driver, and its offense is efficient enough (1.193 pts/poss) to score even against a top-15 defense if the game gets into the low 70s in possessions.
UConn’s slower tempo is the main risk, but it is also an above-average per-possession offense (1.133 pts/poss) and both teams defend the 3 well, which can funnel possessions into higher-value 2s and free throws rather than volatile 3-point variance.
Projected Score
Michigan 77, UConn 71.
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