Tennessee visits Michigan on Sunday, March 29, 2026 at 2:15 PM ET. It’s a high-profile Big Ten vs SEC matchup with Michigan priced as a clear home favorite.
Michigan is -7.5 with a -285 moneyline, while Tennessee is +7.5 and +230. The total sits at 145.5.
Odds
Odds as of 6:59 AM ET on March 28, 2026.
| Market | Tennessee | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +7.5 (-110) | -7.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +230 | -285 |
| Total | Over 145.5 (-115) | Under 145.5 (-105) |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee brings a rebound-driven profile that can travel: 42.5 rebounds per game while allowing 29.6 (approximately +12.9 rebounding margin). The Vols are also elite on the offensive glass at 14.1 offensive boards per game and a 44.4% offensive rebounding rate, giving them extra possessions even when the half-court offense stalls.
Efficiency-wise, Tennessee’s offensive efficiency is 1.136 (45th). Shot profile is more conservative from deep (19.5 3PA per game), but the defense is built to take away threes, holding opponents to 30.3% from 3.
Michigan Wolverines
Michigan’s offense is the clearest separator: 87.5 points per game with top-tier shot-making (36.9% from 3, 61.2% on 2s, and 58.8% effective FG). Michigan also shows up well in possession-based offense, ranking 5th in offensive efficiency at 1.193.
Defensively, Michigan’s shooting suppression is strong (opponents at 38.6% overall, plus a 45.2% opponent effective FG). That profile matters versus a Tennessee team that leans on second-chance creation and half-court execution.
Matchup Keys
- 3-point shot quality: Michigan (36.9% 3PT) faces a Tennessee defense allowing 30.3% from 3, a direct strength-on-strength tension that can decide whether Michigan clears this number comfortably.
- Offensive rebounding vs defensive rebounding: Tennessee is No. 1 in offensive rebounds per game (14.1), but Michigan is strong on the defensive glass (27.4 defensive rebounds per game). If Michigan finishes possessions, Tennessee’s biggest edge shrinks.
- Turnover rate looks similar on paper: Both teams are at 14.2% turnovers per play. That puts more weight on shot conversion and rebounding rather than expecting a turnover avalanche to swing it.
- Points allowed baseline: Tennessee allows 68.9 PPG and Michigan allows 69.8 PPG, suggesting a realistic path to an under if the game doesn’t become transition-heavy.
Best Bet
Under 145.5 (-105).
Both defenses are built to contest efficiently: Michigan holds opponents to 38.6% shooting and Tennessee holds opponents to 30.3% from three. With both teams sitting at the same 14.2% turnover rate, this matchup can tilt toward longer half-court possessions where points are earned rather than free. The key risk is Tennessee’s offensive rebounding (extra possessions), but Michigan’s defensive rebounding numbers give it a chance to limit second-chance volume enough for the under to hold.
Projected Score
Michigan 74, Tennessee 68 (Total: 142).
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