Tennessee and Iowa State meet in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 on Friday, March 27, 2026 at 10:10 p.m. ET at the United Center in Chicago (neutral court). It is an SEC vs Big 12 matchup between teams that finished 5th in their respective leagues.
Iowa State is priced as the favorite: -188 on the moneyline and -4.5 on the spread, with a total of 138.5. Odds as of 10:10 a.m. ET on March 23, 2026.
Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Iowa State -4.5 (-104) | Tennessee +4.5 (-118) | Iowa State -188 | Tennessee +155 | 138.5 (O -110 / U -110) |
Team Snapshot
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee | 24-11 (Home 14-3, Away 5-5) | 6-4 | 16-19-0 | 116.9 | 101.7 | 67.2 | Cade Phillips (F) out (shoulder, season) |
| Iowa State | 29-7 (Home 16-1, Away 5-5) | 6-4 | 23-13-0 | 120.1 | 95.7 | 68.7 | Joshua Jefferson (F) doubtful (ankle); X. Mitchell (F) out; M. Williams (G) out (hip, season) |
Season O/U records: Tennessee 17-18-0; Iowa State 16-20-0.
Both teams last played on March 22 and will have five full days off before this tip in Chicago.
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Tennessee
Tennessee is 6-4 SU over its last 10 with a 6-4 ATS mark in that span, but its last 10 totals skew Under (3-7). Offensively, the Vols are at 80.1 points per game, and they are a middling 33.8% from three.
The clearest Tennessee path is on the glass: 39.7 rebounds per game while allowing 25.7, a +14.0 rebounding margin by raw per-game figures. Ball security is decent (11.7 turnovers per game), but this matchup raises the stakes because Iowa State’s defense generates turnovers at a high rate.
Iowa State
Iowa State is also 6-4 SU over its last 10 and has covered 7 of those 10. The Cyclones’ offense is built to stretch the floor: 38.7% from three on the season, and they are scoring 81.8 points per game.
Defensively, Iowa State’s profile is strong for a tournament setting: 65.2 points allowed per game, plus the ability to create extra possessions via turnovers forced (15.4 per game). Rebounding is solid but not dominant (32.4 rebounds per game; 28.4 allowed).
Matchup Keys
- Tempo: Neither team plays fast (Tennessee 67.2 possessions/40, Iowa State 68.7), so efficiency and live-ball turnovers can decide short stretches.
- 3-point make rate vs 3-point defense: Iowa State shoots 38.7% from three, but Tennessee holds opponents to 30.8% from deep. Something has to give.
- Turnover pressure: Iowa State forces 15.4 turnovers per game; Tennessee commits 11.7. If Tennessee’s guards get sped up, Iowa State’s half-court edge grows.
- Rebounding gap: Tennessee’s +14.0 rebounding margin (39.7 for, 25.7 allowed) is a real counter to Iowa State’s shot-making and turnover creation.
- Free-throw volume: Tennessee gets to the line (23.3 FTA per game), but Iowa State’s defense tends to keep opponents off the stripe (15.4 opponent FTA per game).
Best Bet
Iowa State -4.5 (-104)
Iowa State owns the stronger efficiency combo entering this game (120.1 offensive rating, 95.7 defensive rating) and pairs it with a meaningful shooting edge (38.7% from three vs Tennessee’s 33.8%). The turnover matchup also favors Iowa State’s style, with the Cyclones forcing 15.4 turnovers per game against a Tennessee offense that is not built to play from behind in a slower-possession game. Tennessee can absolutely keep this tight if it wins the glass again and limits live-ball mistakes, but Cade Phillips being out tightens the margin for error if the Vols need to match Iowa State’s spacing and scoring punch.
Projected Score
Iowa State 75, Tennessee 69
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