St. John’s heads to Durham to face Duke on Friday, March 27, 2026 at 7:10 PM ET at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
Duke enters as the ACC leader, while St. John’s sits atop the Big East standings, setting up a high-level nonconference spot late in the calendar with postseason-style pricing on the board.
Odds
Odds from Bookmaker as of 10:02 AM ET on March 23, 2026.
| Market | St. John’s | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +6.5 (-105) | -6.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | +240 | -300 |
| Total | Over 142.5 (-110) | Under 142.5 (-110) |
Team Snapshot
| Team | Record (Home/Road) | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. John’s | 30-6 (Home 15-2, Away 9-1) | W8 streak | 21-13-1 | 116.6 Off Rtg | 100.0 Def Rtg | No injury info listed on the team pages used for this preview (as of March 23, 2026). |
| Duke | 33-2 (Home 15-0, Away 10-1) | 10-0 (current W12 streak shown) | 20-16 | 124.5 Off Rtg | 95.5 Def Rtg | No injury info listed on the team pages used for this preview (as of March 23, 2026). |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
St. John’s: path to hanging around is on the glass and at the line
St. John’s is scoring 81.6 PPG with a +11.6 PPG differential, backed by a 116.6 offensive rating and 100.0 defensive rating. They are also a positive rebounding team at +4.3 rebounds per game, which matters against a Duke team that can win possessions in bulk.
The profile is not overly turnover-prone (10.1 turnovers per game) and they get to the line enough to convert (18.8 free throws made per game). The road résumé is strong at 9-1 away, so the market number is more about Duke’s ceiling than a lack of St. John’s stability.
Duke: elite efficiency indicators plus a major rebounding gap
Duke is scoring 82.3 PPG with a +19.2 PPG differential, and the efficiency combo is sharp: 124.5 offensive rating with a 95.5 defensive rating. That defense plus a top-tier rebounding profile (37.4 RPG, +10.9 rebound differential) is a consistent way to control game script at home.
Shot-making volume from deep is also a plus in a matchup like this: Duke averages 9.1 made 3s per game, giving them a cleaner path to separation if St. John’s has a normal shooting night rather than an outlier.
Matchup Keys
- Rebounding margin: Duke (+10.9 RPG differential) vs St. John’s (+4.3) is the clearest possession edge on the board.
- Defense quality: Duke’s 95.5 defensive rating vs St. John’s 100.0 suggests Duke is better positioned to dictate shot quality in the halfcourt.
- 3-point makes (volume): Duke 9.1 made 3s per game vs St. John’s 6.9 can swing the math fast if attempts are even.
- Turnovers (per game): Both are relatively clean (St. John’s 10.1 TPG, Duke 10.2 TPG), which often reduces the easy transition points that inflate totals.
- Free throws made: St. John’s 18.8 FTM/G vs Duke 16.0 can keep an underdog afloat if the whistle tilts that way.
Best Bet
Under 142.5 (-110).
Both teams have been strong under teams this season based on their O/U results: St. John’s is 12-23 to the Over and Duke is 12-24 to the Over, pointing to consistent market undershooting rather than one-off variance. Duke’s defensive rating (95.5) is the best unit on the floor, and St. John’s is not a “must-run” team by the available indicators (low turnovers, reliance on free throws), which can create longer, more set possessions. If Duke’s rebounding advantage shows up, it can also suppress second-chance chaos for the offense that is trailing.
Projected Score
Duke 74, St. John’s 66
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