Siena and Duke meet in the NCAA Tournament East Region First Round on Thursday, March 19, 2026 at 2:50 p.m. ET from Bon Secours Wellness Arena in Greenville, South Carolina.
Duke enters as the ACC champion and a No. 1 seed, while Siena comes in as the MAAC automatic qualifier. The market is priced accordingly with Duke laying a massive number and a mid-130s total.
Odds
Odds shown are from BetAnything. Odds as of 7:55 p.m. ET on March 16, 2026.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Duke -28.5 (-118) Siena +28.5 (-104) | Duke -100000 Siena +7000 | Over 135.5 (-115) Under 135.5 (-105) |
Team Snapshot
This table covers season-level form and core efficiency indicators.
| Team | Record (Home/Away/Neutral) | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena | 23-11 (9-4 / 9-7 / 5-0) | 6-4 | N/A | 109.4 (pts/100 poss) | 101.8 (pts allowed/100 poss) | 64.3 (poss/40) | No major injuries listed here. |
| Duke | 32-2 (15-0 / 10-1 / 7-1) | 10-0 | N/A | 122.9 (pts/100 poss) | 93.9 (pts allowed/100 poss) | 66.9 (poss/40) | G Caleb Foster left the Mar. 7 game vs North Carolina with a right foot/ankle injury and did not return. C Patrick Ngongba was ruled out of that game with a foot injury (status TBD). |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Siena: what travels
Siena plays at a slow tempo (64.3 possessions per 40 minutes) and generally keeps opponents in the half court, which is a helpful profile when you are catching a huge number. The Saints are +2.8 rebounds per game (34.4 RPG vs 31.6 allowed) and have taken care of the ball at 10.3 turnovers per game.
The scoring profile is modest: 70.5 points per game with a 30.4% team 3PT rate, and opponents have hit 32.8% from three. In their last 10 games, Siena went 6-4, then finished the MAAC tournament run with four straight wins (including a 64-54 win over Merrimack in the title game on March 10).
Duke: elite baseline, matchup-proof defense
Duke is built around efficiency on both ends: 122.9 points per 100 possessions on offense and 93.9 allowed per 100 possessions on defense, with a controlled tempo (66.9). They also bring a strong shooting-and-contest profile, hitting 35.1% from three while holding ACC opponents to 30.4% from three.
Rebounding is a consistent separator: Duke posted a +10.9 rebounding margin (40.3 per game vs 29.4 allowed). They also enter on an 11-game win streak (10-0 last 10), and their recent results show they can win slow, win fast, and win without needing shootout conditions.
Matchup Keys
- Possession count: Siena (64.3 poss/40) and Duke (66.9) both trend slower, which naturally pressures a 28.5-point spread and can keep the total in check.
- 3-point gap: Duke’s 35.1% 3PT shooting vs Siena’s 32.8% 3PT defense is a clean efficiency edge, while Siena’s 30.4% 3PT offense is running into a Duke defense that has held ACC opponents to 30.4% from three.
- Rebounding and second chances: Duke’s +10.9 rebound margin is the biggest structural mismatch on the floor, especially if Siena has to play more possessions in scramble mode.
- Rotation health: If Duke is limited by the Foster and Ngongba situations, that can show up more in pace and offensive spacing than in defensive baseline, which still grades out elite.
Best Bet
Under 135.5 (-105)
Siena’s best path is to slow the game down, shrink possessions, and avoid live-ball turnovers, and their tempo (64.3) supports that approach. Duke is efficient enough to score on anyone, but this is also a team that can win comfortably while keeping opponents out of rhythm, especially against a 30.4% 3-point offense. With blowout risk, late-game bench minutes can be less efficient offensively and keep an under alive even if Duke controls the game throughout.
Projected Score
Duke 82, Siena 47 (Total: 129)
21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.