Siena visits Fairfield on Friday, February 27, 2026 at 7:00 p.m. ET at Leo D. Mahoney Arena in Fairfield, Connecticut in a late-season MAAC matchup with seeding implications.
Siena enters at 19-10 (12-6 MAAC) and Fairfield at 18-11 (10-8 MAAC), with Siena positioned above Fairfield in the conference race and Fairfield trying to maximize its final home weekend (11-3 at home).
Odds
Odds as of 10:54 a.m. ET on February 27, 2026 (from MyBookie).
| Market | Siena | Fairfield |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-106) | +1.5 (-114) |
| Moneyline | -125 | +104 |
| Total | 143.5 (Over -110 / Under -110) | |
Team Snapshot
This table summarizes season-level form, betting results, and estimated efficiency/tempo.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena Saints | 19-10 | 7-3 | 16-13-0 | 110.3 (pts/100 poss, est.) | 103.1 (pts allowed/100 poss, est.) | 64.4 poss/game (est.) | Tasman Goodrick (F) out (knee, season). Multiple rotation players listed questionable. |
| Fairfield Stags | 18-11 | 7-3 | 12-16-0 | 112.0 (pts/100 poss, est.) | 107.5 (pts allowed/100 poss, est.) | 67.8 poss/game (est.) | No injuries reported. |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Siena: defense-first profile, slower game script
Siena’s season scoring margin is driven more by defense than pace: the Saints are allowing 66.4 points per game while playing an estimated 64.4 possessions per game. That combination tends to keep opponents from getting comfortable early-clock threes, and it also reduces the number of “runout” chances that inflate totals in the MAAC.
Over Siena’s last 10 games, the Saints are 7-3 straight up and 5-5 ATS with a 5-5 over/under split. The recent results show a clear pattern: when Siena’s half-court offense stalls (season 30.2% from three), the Saints still hang around because they rebound their misses and get to the line. Siena is generating 0.339 free-throw attempts per field-goal attempt, and that’s a meaningful lever against teams that foul or struggle to defend without reaching.
The primary on-court concern is frontcourt depth. Tasman Goodrick (9 games) is out for the season, and Siena has additional questionable tags in the rotation. Even if Siena’s starting group is intact, missing one big reduces lineup flexibility against Fairfield’s offensive rebounding and interior finishing.
Fairfield: faster tempo, heavy offensive-rebound pressure
Fairfield is the more pace-forward team in this matchup at an estimated 67.8 possessions per game, and the Stags have the higher raw scoring output at 76.0 points per game. The Stags’ offensive identity is built on second chances and spacing: Fairfield rebounds 38.2 per game (plus-3.7 margin) and takes threes at a higher rate than Siena (36.3% of attempts from three vs. Siena’s 31.5%).
The defensive side is where Fairfield can leak points. The Stags are allowing 72.9 points per game, and opponents are shooting 34.4% from three against them. That matters here because Siena’s most consistent path to efficient points has been free throws and finishing, not shot-making from deep. If Fairfield is undisciplined in the paint, Siena can score without needing a “good” three-point shooting night.
Fairfield’s form is solid entering Friday: 7-3 in the last 10 with a 4-6 over/under split, suggesting their recent wins have not required track-meet scoring. The home split is a stabilizer as well: Fairfield is 11-3 at home versus 7-8 on the road, and the venue often shows up most in three-point shooting and energy on the glass.
Matchup stat table
This table highlights the core matchup stats that most directly connect to the spread and total.
| Category | Siena | Fairfield |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 71.1 | 76.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 66.4 | 72.9 |
| Offensive efficiency (est.) | 110.3 pts/100 poss | 112.0 pts/100 poss |
| Defensive efficiency (est.) | 103.1 pts allowed/100 poss | 107.5 pts allowed/100 poss |
| Tempo (est.) | 64.4 poss/game | 67.8 poss/game |
| 3PT% (offense) | 30.2% | 33.9% |
| Opponent 3PT% | 33.4% | 34.4% |
| 3PA rate (3PA/FGA) | 31.5% | 36.3% |
| Rebounding margin | +3.1 (33.9 vs 30.8) | +3.7 (38.2 vs 34.5) |
| Offensive rebounds per game | 10.2 | 13.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 10.4 | 9.9 |
| Turnover rate (est.) | 16.2% (TO/poss) | 14.6% (TO/poss) |
| Turnover margin | +0.9 per game | +1.5 per game |
| FT rate (FTA/FGA) | 0.339 | 0.281 |
| Opponent FT rate allowed (opp FTA/opp FGA) | 0.290 | 0.301 |
| Blocks per game | 2.8 | 3.7 |
Matchup Keys
- Tempo control: Fairfield plays about 3.4 more possessions per game (est.) than Siena. If Siena keeps this closer to a mid-60s possession game, it reduces Fairfield’s volume edge and pushes the matchup toward half-court execution.
- Second-chance points: Fairfield’s 13.8 offensive rebounds per game is a major pressure point against a Siena team that is winning the overall rebounding battle but is thinner up front with Goodrick out.
- Three-point math: Fairfield makes more threes (7.8 per game) and shoots a better percentage (33.9% vs 30.2%). Siena’s defense has allowed 7.4 opponent threes per game, so contesting the arc without overhelping is a priority.
- Turnover economy: Both teams take care of the ball, but Fairfield has the cleaner offensive turnover profile (14.6% TO rate est.) and a stronger turnover margin (+1.5 per game). Siena’s best answer is converting empty Fairfield possessions into free throws and paint touches rather than trading quick threes.
- Foul and free-throw shape: Siena’s offensive FT rate (0.339) is notably higher than Fairfield’s (0.281). In a tight spread game, points with the clock stopped can swing late-game outcomes and also slow Fairfield’s transition game.
Market Context
A Siena -1.5 road spread is a clear signal that the market is rating Siena’s overall profile above Fairfield’s home-court edge, even with Fairfield sitting 11-3 at Mahoney Arena. Siena’s better season-long ATS mark (16-13) compared to Fairfield (12-16) matches the idea that Siena has been more consistent week-to-week, especially on the defensive end.
The 143.5 total is sitting in the zone where Fairfield’s pace can push games higher, but Siena’s defensive efficiency and slower tempo can pull games back into the low 140s. Fairfield’s recent totals trend (4-6 to the under in the last 10) also fits the idea that they have not needed shootouts to win lately.
Best Bet
Pick: Under 143.5 (-110)
Siena’s defensive baseline (66.4 points allowed per game) and slower tempo (64.4 possessions per game, estimated) are the two most reliable drivers in this matchup, and they directly oppose Fairfield’s preferred faster script. Fairfield can score, but their clearest edge is offensive rebounding, which extends possessions while also bleeding clock, and that often produces points without creating a true pace spike. With Siena also leaning on free throws (0.339 FT rate), the game can become segmented and half-court heavy, particularly in the second half if it stays within one or two possessions. My projection is a low-140s game that lands slightly below the posted number.
Projected Score
Siena 72, Fairfield 69
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