Sam Houston State heads to Albuquerque to face New Mexico on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET (The Pit, University Arena). It’s a non-conference postseason spot with New Mexico finishing 3rd in the Mountain West and Sam Houston finishing 2nd in Conference USA.
New Mexico is a heavy favorite at -11.5 with a high total of 164.5, pricing in pace and shot-making from two teams averaging 80+ points per game on the season.
Odds
Odds as of 7:46 PM ET on March 16, 2026 (BetOnline).
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico -11.5 (-112) Sam Houston State +11.5 (-108) | New Mexico -650 Sam Houston State +460 | Over 164.5 (-115) Under 164.5 (-105) |
Team Snapshot
A quick side-by-side snapshot for betting context.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston State | 22-11 (Away: 6-9) | 6-4 | 19-11-0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Justin Begg (Out, season); Po’Boigh King (Questionable) |
| New Mexico | 23-10 (Home: 14-3) | 5-5 | 18-14-0 | N/A | N/A | N/A | Kallai Patton (Out, redshirt); Sir Marius Jones (Out, redshirt); Chris Howell (Questionable, wrist) |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Sam Houston State
Sam Houston State’s profile is built on physicality and second-chance creation: 40.7 rebounds per game with a +6.8 rebounding margin. Offensively, the Bearkats shoot 46.4% overall and 36.7% from three, but their ball security is closer to average at 11.8 turnovers per game.
Defensively, Sam Houston State allows 74.2 points per game and holds opponents to 31.2% from three, which matters against a New Mexico team that will take and make threes at home. The bigger concern is availability: Begg is out for the season and King is listed questionable, thinning a backcourt that already turns it over at a middling rate.
New Mexico
New Mexico’s best betting trait is defensive shot quality control on the perimeter: opponents are shooting 30.0% from three on the season. The Lobos also protect the ball (10.7 turnovers per game) and create extra possessions with a +2.9 turnover margin, forcing 13.6 turnovers per game.
Offensively, New Mexico averages 80.5 points per game with 46.0% shooting and 36.2% from three, plus a clear top-end shot-maker in Jake Hall (16.0 ppg, 44.5% from three). The Lobos’ rebounding edge is more modest (+2.4), which is the most direct path for Sam Houston State to keep this close if the Bearkats control the glass.
Matchup Keys
- Total vs. defensive 3PT rates: New Mexico allows 30.0% from three and Sam Houston State allows 31.2% from three. That’s a tough backdrop for a 164.5 total unless the game becomes a free-throw parade or a transition track meet.
- Rebounding swing: Sam Houston State is +6.8 rebounds per game (40.7 to 33.9). New Mexico is +2.4. If the Bearkats win second-chance points, it’s the cleanest way to challenge both spread and under.
- Turnover pressure: New Mexico forces 13.6 turnovers per game and only commits 10.7. Sam Houston State commits 11.8 and is missing backcourt depth. Live-ball turnovers are where this can get away from the dog quickly.
- Efficiency needed to clear 164.5: Using season scoring and defensive averages, a midpoint expectation lands closer to the mid-150s than the mid-160s, even before postseason-style possessions are considered.
Best Bet
Under 164.5 (-105)
Projected Score
New Mexico 83, Sam Houston State 74 (157 total)
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