Purdue (Big Ten champion, 2-seed) draws Queens (Atlantic Sun champion, 15-seed) in a West Region first-round game on Friday, March 20 at 7:35 p.m. ET at Enterprise Center in St. Louis.
The market is priced like a blowout, with Purdue laying 25.5 and a total of 163.5 that implies Queens can keep scoring even against a top-tier opponent. Odds as of 8:18 p.m. ET on March 16, 2026.
Odds
Here’s a quick look at the current lines (from BetUS).
| Market | Purdue Boilermakers | Queens University Royals |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -25.5 (-110) | +25.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -20000 | +3500 |
| Total | Over 163.5 (-110) | Under 163.5 (-110) |
Team Snapshot
This table summarizes where each team stands entering the matchup.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queens | 21-13 (ASUN: 13-5) | 8-2 | — | — | — | — | No update available |
| Purdue | 27-8 (Home: 12-5, Away: 8-3, Neutral: 7-0) | 6-4 | — | KenPom AdjO rank: 3rd | KenPom AdjD rank: 22nd | — | No update available |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Queens University Royals
Queens plays in high-scoring games: 84.9 points per game, but it also allows 82.9, with opponents shooting 46.6% overall and 35.4% from 3. The Royals make 10.2 threes per game (36.0% 3PT), so they have a real path to hang a number if the 3s are falling.
The problem is the possession battle. Queens is -1.6 rebounds per game (33.8 vs 35.4) and basically even in turnovers (10.7 committed vs 10.9 forced). Against a disciplined favorite, those thin edges matter because you need extra possessions to survive long scoring droughts.
Purdue Boilermakers
Purdue is built to separate in class-mismatch games: 81.7 points per game with a +11.5 scoring margin, and it holds opponents to 70.1. The shot profile is strong too, hitting 37.9% from 3 while holding opponents to 34.2% from deep.
The cleanest edge is ball security plus rebounding. Purdue averages just 8.9 turnovers per game with a 2.2 assist-to-turnover ratio, and it is +7.0 on the glass (35.4 vs 28.4). That combination cuts off transition chances and second-chance points for an underdog that needs variance.
Matchup Keys
- Rebounding margin: Purdue +7.0 rebounds per game vs Queens -1.6. If Purdue turns missed shots into extra possessions, the spread stays in play.
- Turnover control: Purdue is at 8.9 turnovers per game (2.2 A/TO). Queens is not a high-turnover forcing team (opponents 10.9 TO/G), so live-ball giveaways may be limited.
- 3-point math: Queens makes 10.2 threes per game (36.0%), but Purdue’s opponent 3PT is 34.2%. Queens likely needs above-average 3PT shooting to threaten the number.
- Game environment and total: Queens games average 167.8 total points (84.9 scored, 82.9 allowed), while Purdue games average 151.8. The total largely depends on whether Queens can score efficiently in the halfcourt once Purdue’s size takes away second chances.
- Rest and prep: Queens last played March 8, while Purdue last played March 15. Queens has the longer recovery window, but Purdue is coming off a neutral-site run and has been sharp offensively all season.
Best Bet
Under 163.5 (-110).
Queens’ season-long totals run hot, but Purdue’s defensive baseline (70.1 allowed per game) is the type that can drag an underdog off its averages, especially if Purdue controls the glass and limits transition with low turnovers. Queens also faces a major step up in size and execution after living in ASUN track meets, and those games often slow down once the favorite builds a lead and manages the second half. A Purdue win can still be comfortable without this needing to turn into a 90-plus possession sprint.
Projected Score
Purdue 89, Queens 68 (Total: 157)
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