Providence (No. 9 seed) faces St. John’s (No. 1 seed) in the Big East Tournament quarterfinal at Madison Square Garden in New York on Thursday, March 12, 2026 (12:00 PM ET).
St. John’s enters at 25-6 overall (18-2 Big East) while Providence is 15-17 (7-13 Big East). The teams split the regular-season series, with each winning on the road.
Odds
Odds as of 8:38 AM ET on March 12, 2026. Lines referenced from BetOnline.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Providence +11.5 (-118) | St. John’s -11.5 (-104) | Providence +500 | St. John’s -720 | Over 158.5 (-108) | Under 158.5 (-112) |
Team Snapshot
Here’s a side-by-side snapshot of form and profile metrics.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Providence | 15-17 (Home 10-6, Away 3-8, Neutral 2-3) | 6-4 | 18-13-0 | 1.20 pts/poss | 1.11 pts/poss allowed | 74.2 poss/gm | Jason Edwards (undisclosed) sat out vs Butler on Mar 11; Corey Floyd (hamstring) was available Mar 11 |
| St. John’s | 25-6 (Home 15-2, Away 9-1, Neutral 1-3) | 9-1 | 16-15-0 | 1.17 pts/poss | 0.95 pts/poss allowed | 71.1 poss/gm | Kelvin Odih (leg) missed recent action (last listed out Mar 6) |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Providence
Providence’s path to scoring is pace and shot-making: 85.7 points per game while allowing 84.0, with a +1.8 scoring margin. The Friars are hitting 36.4% from three, but the bigger issue is defensive leakage as opponents are also at 35.6% from deep.
Over the last 10 games, Providence is 6-4 straight up and 7-3 ATS, with 6 of those 10 going over the total. Ball security is a pressure point: 12.4 turnovers per game and a -2.7 turnover margin, which is a tough profile against an opponent that wins possession battles.
St. John’s
St. John’s has the cleaner two-way profile: 81.9 points per game scored, 70.5 allowed, and a +11.3 scoring margin. The Red Storm are allowing just 31.9% from three, a key separator versus a Providence team that wants to win from the arc.
Recent results point toward slower, defense-driven games: St. John’s is 9-1 in its last 10, and 8 of those 10 finished under the total. They also bring a strong possession edge with 10.5 turnovers per game, forcing 13.9, and a +3.3 turnover margin.
Matchup Keys
- Rest and legs: Providence played Wednesday (Mar 11) at MSG, while St. John’s last played Mar 6, giving the Red Storm a major rest advantage in a tournament setting.
- Turnovers decide possessions: Providence is -2.7 in turnover margin vs St. John’s +3.3. That gap can create extra shot volume for the favorite without needing hot shooting.
- 3-point prevention vs 3-point reliance: Providence allows 35.6% from three, while St. John’s holds opponents to 31.9%.
- Rebounding is fairly neutral: Providence is +3.3 in rebounding margin and St. John’s is +4.2, so it’s less likely either side runs away on second-chance points alone.
- Same-season meetings stayed low: The two regular-season matchups finished 77-71 and 79-69 (148 points both times), well below 158.5.
Best Bet
Under 158.5 (-112)
St. John’s has been an under team lately (8 unders in its last 10), and the defensive efficiency profile supports it, especially against a Providence offense that can be sped up into mistakes. Even though Providence plays fast and has had more overs recently, the Friars are on short rest after playing Mar 11, which often shows up first in shooting legs and transition defense discipline. Add in that both head-to-head games landed at 148, and 158.5 is asking for a very clean offensive game from both sides.
Projected Score
St. John’s 82, Providence 70
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