Old Dominion visits Georgia State on Friday, February 27, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET at the GSU Convocation Center in Atlanta.
The market has Old Dominion favored by 1.5 points with a total of 149.5. In the Sun Belt context, this is a late-season game between two teams near the bottom half of the standings, with both looking for momentum heading into the conference tournament.
Odds
Odds as of 11:09 a.m. ET on Feb 27, 2026. Odds listed are from Bookmaker.eu.
| Market | Old Dominion | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -125 | +104 |
| Total | O 149.5 (-105) | U 149.5 (-115) |
Team Snapshot
This table summarizes season-level betting results and possession-based indicators.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Old Dominion | 10-20 (Sun Belt: 6-11) | 4-6 | 15-14-0 | 1.04 pts/poss | 1.10 pts/poss allowed | 70.5 poss/40 | No injuries listed on the latest injury report. |
| Georgia State | 10-20 (Sun Belt: 7-10) | 2-8 | 13-15-0 | 1.03 pts/poss | 1.07 pts/poss allowed | 70.0 poss/40 | Clash Peters (F) has been listed as questionable (personal) and has not contributed in the available team tracking. |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
This head-to-head stat table focuses on pace, shooting, ball security, and rebounding signals that tend to decide tight Sun Belt games.
| Metric | Old Dominion | Georgia State |
|---|---|---|
| Tempo (possessions per 40) | 70.5 | 70.0 |
| Offensive efficiency (pts/poss) | 1.04 | 1.03 |
| Defensive efficiency (pts/poss allowed) | 1.10 | 1.07 |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 31.3% |
| Opponent 3PT% | 31.6% | 33.6% |
| Turnover rate (offense) | 13.7% | 14.5% |
| Opp. turnover rate (defense) | 12.6% | 14.4% |
| Free-throw rate (FTA/FGA) | 32.8% | 37.4% |
| Opponent free-throw rate allowed (FTA/FGA allowed) | 41.0% | 34.4% |
| Rebounding (per game) | 32.2 | N/A |
| Opponent rebounds allowed (per game) | 35.6 | N/A |
| Estimated rebounding margin (reb/g minus opp reb allowed) | -3.4 | N/A |
Old Dominion: what the profile says
Old Dominion’s offense grades out slightly better than Georgia State’s in shot-making and spacing: 34.5% from three on the season with opponents held to 31.6% from deep. That opponent 3-point number is one of the cleaner “travel-proof” indicators for ODU because it tends to come from scheme and contest discipline rather than hot shooting nights.
The concern is on the defensive foul side. ODU’s opponent free-throw rate allowed (41.0% FTA/FGA allowed) is extremely high and it creates a path for Georgia State to score efficiently even if the Panthers are not finishing well from the field. In close spreads like -1.5, giving away free points is often the swing factor, especially late when teams are trading half-court possessions.
Form-wise, ODU’s last 10 sits at 4-6, and the two most recent games were road losses (at Southern Miss and at Marshall). That matters here because the scheduling spot is not friendly: ODU is again away from Norfolk, with another trip into Atlanta on two full days’ rest after playing on Feb. 24.
Georgia State: what the profile says
Georgia State’s season is defined by two competing truths: the Panthers have struggled to score efficiently in the half court, but they can stabilize close games with free throws. Their offensive free-throw rate (37.4% FTA/FGA) is strong, and their team free-throw accuracy has been a consistent backbone relative to their field-goal percentage volatility.
The shooting profile is still the obvious weakness. Georgia State’s season-long 3PT% (31.3%) is below-average, and the matchup is not ideal because Old Dominion has held opponents to 31.6% from three. If Georgia State is not generating paint touches and free throws, the offense can stagnate quickly.
Recent results are rough (2-8 last 10), but the situational setup is better than ODU’s. Georgia State has been home since Feb. 19 and this game is the end of a homestand, while ODU is finishing the season on the road. The Panthers also have very recent film against ODU after losing 78-55 in Norfolk on Feb. 14, which can help clean up coverage mistakes and shot selection in the rematch.
Matchup Keys
- Free-throw math: Georgia State’s ability to generate attempts (37.4% FTA/FGA) lines up directly with Old Dominion’s biggest defensive leak (41.0% opponent FTA/FGA allowed). If whistles are normal, that tends to keep the underdog live deep into the second half.
- 3-point gatekeeper matchup: Georgia State is a low-30s 3-point team (31.3%), and Old Dominion is one of the better profiles at limiting opponent 3s (31.6% opponent 3PT). That pushes Georgia State toward midrange attempts and free throws rather than “quick catch-up” threes.
- Turnover pressure: Georgia State is more capable of forcing turnovers (14.4% opponent turnover rate) than Old Dominion (12.6%). In a near pick’em, a small extra-possession edge can be decisive.
- Tempo is not extreme: Both teams sit around 70 possessions per 40 minutes. That generally reduces randomness, which makes late-game execution and free-throw shooting even more important in a 1- to 2-possession spread.
- Rebounding risk for ODU: Old Dominion’s available rebounding indicators point to a negative margin profile (32.2 rebounds per game vs 35.6 allowed). If that shows up again, it can erase some of ODU’s shooting edge via second-chance points for Georgia State.
Best Bet
Pick: Georgia State +1.5 (-110)
The spread is tight, and Georgia State’s path to covering is clearer than it looks because it does not require high-end shooting. The Panthers can score at the line, and the matchup is favorable given Old Dominion’s tendency to allow free-throw attempts (41.0% opponent FTA/FGA allowed). Add in the rest and travel context, with Georgia State staying home and ODU closing with another road game after traveling on Feb. 24, and it supports taking the points in a game that profiles as a late-possession finish.
Projected Score
Georgia State 74, Old Dominion 72
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