Oklahoma and Texas A&M meet Thursday, March 12, 2026 at 9:30 PM ET at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville (SEC Tournament Second Round). Texas A&M is the No. 6 seed, and Oklahoma is the No. 11 seed coming off a first-round win on Wednesday.
Texas A&M is favored by 2.5 with a mid-160s total, pricing this as a tight game but with a faster scoring environment than a typical tournament grinder.
Odds
Odds as of 9:21 AM ET on March 12, 2026.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma +2.5 (-102) | Texas A&M -2.5 (-120) | Oklahoma +134 | Texas A&M -162 | Over 161.5 (-110) | Under 161.5 (-110) |
Odds referenced from BetOnline.
Team Snapshot
This table captures current form, market results, and core efficiency indicators.
| Team | Record (Home/Away/Neutral) | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo (Pace) | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma | 18-14 (11-5 / 4-7 / 3-2) | 7-3 | 14-18 | 1.19 pts/poss | 1.09 pts/poss | 68.8 | No confirmed absences noted; monitor pregame updates. |
| Texas A&M | 21-10 (14-4 / 6-5 / 1-1) | 4-6 | 18-13 | 1.22 pts/poss | 1.02 pts/poss | 73.7 | No confirmed absences noted; monitor pregame updates. |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Oklahoma
Oklahoma enters on a 7-3 run over its last 10 and just won in the SEC Tournament on Wednesday, so the form is real but the turnaround is short. Overall profile: 82.8 points per game scored and 77.4 allowed, with a modest +0.6 rebounding margin and +0.6 turnover margin.
The Sooners’ spacing is a true weapon: 37.4% from three on the season, led by high-volume perimeter scoring. The concern is what they give back defensively: opponents are at 34.7% from three, and the defensive efficiency (1.09 pts/poss) leaves them vulnerable if they do not win the shot quality battle.
Texas A&M
Texas A&M’s last-10 results (4-6) are weaker, but the underlying scoring environment stays consistent: 88.5 points per game scored and 79.5 allowed. They play faster than Oklahoma (73.7 pace) and have been the more reliable ball-pressure team in results, carrying a +2.9 turnover margin while forcing opponents into mistakes.
The cleanest matchup edge is on the perimeter. Texas A&M shoots 37.4% from three and holds opponents to 32.2% from three, which is a strong two-way indicator against an Oklahoma team that can be outscored quickly if the opponent’s threes start falling early.
Matchup Keys
- 3-point math: Texas A&M (37.4% 3PT, 32.2% opp 3PT) owns the cleaner two-way perimeter profile than Oklahoma (37.4% 3PT, 34.7% opp 3PT).
- Pace control: Texas A&M plays faster (73.7 pace) than Oklahoma (68.8). If A&M dictates tempo, Oklahoma’s defensive efficiency is more likely to get exposed.
- Turnovers: Texas A&M brings a +2.9 turnover margin versus Oklahoma’s +0.6. Extra possessions matter in a spread sitting on one possession.
- Rest and legs: Oklahoma played Wednesday night in Nashville, while Texas A&M last played March 7. Short turnaround can show up first in transition defense and 3-point closeouts.
- Rebounding is not a separator (overall): Both teams are close on season rebounding margin (Oklahoma +0.6, Texas A&M +0.3), so this is more likely decided by shot-making and turnovers than pure glass dominance.
Best Bet
Texas A&M -2.5 (-120).
Texas A&M is the more stable two-way 3-point team (better opponent 3PT%) and plays at a tempo that can force Oklahoma into a defense-first game they have not consistently won this season. The Aggies also carry the better turnover margin, which is a strong predictor in a tight spread where 2 to 4 possessions can decide it. Finally, the rest advantage favors Texas A&M in a late-tip tournament setting, especially if the game gets up-and-down.
Projected Score
Texas A&M 83, Oklahoma 79
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