Merrimack visits Canisius on Friday, Feb. 27, 2026 at 7:00 p.m. ET at Koessler Athletic Center in Buffalo, New York. Merrimack enters at 20-9 overall (16-2 MAAC), while Canisius is 9-20 (4-14 MAAC).
This is a MAAC game with very different stakes: Merrimack has already secured the league’s regular-season title and the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament, while Canisius has been eliminated from MAAC tournament qualification under the top-10 format.
Odds
Odds as of 10:54 a.m. ET on Feb. 27, 2026 (BetOnline).
| Market | Merrimack | Canisius |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -10.5 (-102) | +10.5 (-120) |
| Moneyline | -610 | +440 |
| Total | Over 130.5 (-115) | Under 130.5 (-105) |
Team Snapshot
This table summarizes records, recent form, and core style indicators.
| Team | Record (Home/Away/Neutral) | Last 10 | ATS (Season) | Off Eff (PPP) | Def Eff (PPP Allowed) | Tempo (Poss/G) | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merrimack | 20-9 (11-0 / 8-8 / 1-1) | 9-1 | 19-10-0 | 1.01 | 1.11 | 65.2 | No injuries listed. |
| Canisius | 9-20 (6-7 / 3-13 / 0-0) | 1-9 | 13-15-0 | 0.91 | 1.18 | 65.6 | Anthony Benard (G) out, shoulder (since Jan. 21). |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Merrimack Warriors
Merrimack brings an eight-game win streak into Buffalo and has been strong across multiple game scripts lately. Over the last 10 games, the Warriors are 9-1, and they have also covered frequently in that span (8-2 ATS last 10).
Style-wise, Merrimack plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country (65.2 possessions per game), and that pace is a major driver of their profile. They score 69.4 points per game and allow 67.5, but the defensive case looks better when you consider opponent shot quality indicators: opponents are shooting 41.8% overall and just 29.6% from three against Merrimack.
The Warriors’ best, most repeatable advantage is possession pressure. They average 8.2 steals per game, force 12.7 opponent turnovers per game, and only turn it over 9.8 times per game themselves. That combination can travel, particularly against teams that struggle to create clean half-court looks.
The clear vulnerability is on the glass. Merrimack is being out-rebounded by 9.9 per game (28.9 RPG vs 38.8 allowed). That is an extreme number and it creates a real path for an underdog to shorten the game by adding second chances or generating extra free throws through put-backs and scramble situations.
Canisius Golden Griffins
Canisius has stabilized enough to steal games when the three-point shot cooperates, but the overall production has not been consistent. The Golden Griffins are 1-9 over their last 10 games, and their season-long scoring margin is -8.1 points per game (62.8 scored, 70.9 allowed).
Offensively, Canisius is at 40.0% from the field, which leaves a thin margin for error when they also commit 12.9 turnovers per game. They do have functional spacing (33.1% from three as a team), but the matchup is tougher than the raw percentage suggests because Merrimack’s defense holds opponents to 29.6% from three.
Defensively, Canisius has had problems containing efficient looks at the rim. Opponents are shooting 45.1% from the field and Canisius allows 70.9 points per game. They also do not generate many “free” possessions through takeaways (5.0 steals per game), which matters against a Merrimack team that is comfortable grinding a game down as long as it is getting shots each trip.
Injury-wise, Canisius lists guard Anthony Benard out with a shoulder injury. Canisius also had Kahlil Singleton miss a game earlier this month with a lower-body injury, but he has since returned to the lineup.
This table compiles the matchup’s key team-level metrics in one place.
| Metric | Merrimack | Canisius |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 69.4 | 62.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 67.5 | 70.9 |
| FG% (Offense) | .420 | .400 |
| Opp FG% (Defense) | .418 | .451 |
| 3PT% (Offense) | .327 | .331 |
| Opp 3PT% (Defense) | .296 | .332 |
| FT% | .788 | .711 |
| Rebounds per game | 28.9 | 33.3 |
| Opp rebounds per game | 38.8 | 34.1 |
| Rebounding margin | -9.9 | -0.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 9.8 | 12.9 |
| Opponent turnovers per game forced | 12.7 | 10.9 |
| Turnover rate (Off TO%) | 13.86% | 17.12% |
| Defense turnover rate (Opp TO%) | 16.30% | 14.61% |
| Steals per game | 8.2 | 5.0 |
| Blocks per game | 5.1 | 2.6 |
| O/U record (Season) | Over 10, Under 19 (10-19-0) | Over 9, Under 19 (9-19-0) |
Matchup Keys
- Tempo and possession count: Both teams sit around 65 possessions per game, which naturally compresses scoring and makes double-digit spreads harder to separate unless the favorite dominates turnover margin.
- Turnovers are the swing factor: Merrimack’s 9.8 turnovers per game versus Canisius’ 12.9 is a meaningful gap, and the Warriors also force 12.7 opponent turnovers per game while Canisius forces 10.9.
- 3-point prevention vs 3-point reliance: Canisius shoots 33.1% from three, but Merrimack holds opponents to 29.6% from deep. If Canisius cannot win from the perimeter, the scoring ceiling is limited.
- Rebounding is Canisius’ best path to extra offense: Merrimack’s -9.9 rebounding margin is the one team stat that can keep an underdog competitive even when shot-making is uneven.
- Free throws and late-game scoring: Merrimack’s 78.8% at the line can stabilize road scoring. Canisius must avoid a parade to the stripe in a game where shot quality is already likely to be contested.
Best Bet
Under 130.5
Merrimack’s pace (65.2 possessions per game) and defensive three-point suppression (29.6% allowed) point toward longer, lower-scoring possessions for Canisius, which is already at 62.8 points per game and 40.0% shooting. The Warriors also take care of the ball (9.8 turnovers per game), which often reduces “runout” points that can unexpectedly lift totals in slow games. Even with Merrimack’s rebounding issues creating extra possessions for the opponent, Canisius still has to convert those chances efficiently, and the matchup suggests that efficiency is not a given. Measured confidence, with the main risk coming from foul-driven scoring if the game becomes free-throw heavy late.
Projected Score
Merrimack 70, Canisius 56 (Total: 126)
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