Loyola (Chi) and Davidson meet Thursday night in the Atlantic 10 Championship (PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh). Davidson is the No. 6 seed (10-8 A-10) and Loyola is the No. 14 seed (4-14 A-10), coming off a 75-67 win over Richmond on Wednesday (March 11).
Davidson opened as a clear favorite and this is the third meeting this season after two Wildcats wins (79-64 on Jan. 7, 84-64 on Feb. 6). Davidson also has the rest edge (last played Saturday, March 7), while Loyola is on a one-day turnaround in the same venue.
Odds
Odds as of 9:07 a.m. ET on March 12, 2026. Market odds sourced from BetOnline.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Davidson -6.5 (-120) | Loyola +6.5 (-102) | Davidson -315 | Loyola +250 | 132.5 (O -110 / U -110) |
Team Snapshot
This table highlights baseline profile metrics entering tip.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loyola (Chi) | 9-23 (Home 6-10, Away 1-9, Neutral 2-4) | 4-6 | 11-20-0 | 1.03 pts/poss | 1.14 pts/poss allowed | 67.0 poss/gm | Justin Moore (undisclosed) has been listed out recently; Kymany Houinsou was ruled out vs Richmond on Mar. 11. |
| Davidson | 19-12 (Home 11-7, Away 7-4, Neutral 1-1) | 6-4 | 14-15-0 | 1.12 pts/poss | 1.03 pts/poss allowed | 66.1 poss/gm | Josh Scovens missed the Mar. 7 game (undisclosed) and Roberts Blums has been dealing with illness recently. |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Loyola (Chi) Ramblers
Loyola’s season-long profile is offense-limited: 67.0 points per game with a 31.9% 3PT mark, and the defense has been vulnerable to the arc (37.2% opponent 3PT). The turnover picture is a major issue: 17.28% offensive turnover rate and just 11.29% forced on defense, which lines up with the raw counts (13.1 turnovers per game committed, 8.5 forced).
From a betting-results standpoint, Loyola is 11-20 ATS and 14-17 to the total. The Ramblers’ clearest path to hanging around is making threes at volume (3PA/FGA 48.01%, one of the highest rates nationally) without turning it over, because the free-throw edge is not reliable (67.8% team FT, opponents at 77.2%).
Davidson Wildcats
Davidson brings the more efficient offense (1.12 pts/poss) and better defense (1.03 allowed), while playing at a slow pace (66.1 possessions per game). The Wildcats have a clear shooting edge: 36.6% from three with opponents held to 32.2% from three, and they also win the turnover battle more often than not (10.4 turnovers per game, +1.3 turnover margin).
Davidson is 14-15 ATS and 13-16 O/U. Even with a near-neutral rebounding margin (-0.1 boards per game), Davidson’s shot quality tends to travel because the offense is three-heavy (43.75% of attempts from three) and the defense is built to run teams off clean perimeter looks.
Matchup Keys
- 3-point math: Davidson 36.6% 3PT vs Loyola allowing 37.2% opponent 3PT. Loyola is only 31.9% from three and faces a Davidson defense holding opponents to 32.2% from deep.
- Turnovers and shot volume: Loyola’s 17.28% offensive TO rate vs Davidson’s 15.45% defensive TO rate is not a clean mismatch, but Loyola’s inability to force turnovers (11.29% forced) reduces upset paths.
- Tempo stays controlled: Both are slow (Davidson 66.1, Loyola 67.0 possessions per game). That generally increases the value of clean possessions and late-clock execution, an area Davidson has been steadier in.
- Rest and legs: Davidson last played March 7, while Loyola played March 11 in the same building. The one-day turnaround can show up most in jump shooting and defensive closeouts.
- Rebounding is unlikely to swing it: Davidson is -0.1 rebounds per game and Loyola is +0.4, so the game is more likely decided by shooting efficiency and turnovers than second-chance dominance.
Best Bet
Davidson -6.5 (-120)
This matchup sets up well for Davidson’s biggest strengths: perimeter shot-making (36.6% 3PT) against a Loyola defense that’s been leaky from three (37.2% opponent 3PT), plus a meaningful rest advantage with Loyola on a one-day turnaround. Davidson also already has two wins over Loyola this season by 15 and 20 points, and the Ramblers’ turnover profile (17.28% offensive TO rate) makes it harder to survive empty possessions in a slow-tempo game. If Loyola is again short-handed in the backcourt, the half-court creation burden increases, which tends to widen the gap late.
Projected Score
Davidson 72, Loyola (Chi) 64
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