LIU Sharks vs Arizona Wildcats tips at 1:35 PM ET on Friday, March 20, 2026 at Viejas Arena (San Diego, CA). This is a classic 1-seed vs 16-seed profile: Arizona comes in as the Big 12 champ, while LIU is the Northeast (NEC) auto-bid.
Arizona is laying a massive number at -31.5 with a 151.5 total. With the moneyline essentially untouchable, the betting decision mostly comes down to Arizona’s willingness to extend margin for 40 minutes and whether LIU can contribute enough offense to keep the total afloat.
Odds
Odds as of 8:11 PM ET on March 16, 2026. Odds from BetOnline.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Wildcats | -31.5 (-106) | -100000 | O 151.5 (-115) / U 151.5 (-105) |
| LIU Sharks | +31.5 (-114) | +8000 | O 151.5 (-115) / U 151.5 (-105) |
Team Snapshot
Here is a quick, bet-focused look at both teams.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff (pts/poss) | Def Eff (pts/poss) | Tempo (poss/g) | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LIU Sharks | 24-10 | 8-2 | 17-17-0 | 1.04 | 1.10 | 69.0 | No major update noted |
| Arizona Wildcats | 32-2 | 9-1 | 20-14-0 | 1.27 | 0.89 | 71.4 | Koa Peat missed late-Feb games, listed healthy entering the NCAA Tournament |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
LIU offense vs Arizona defense
LIU is scoring 76.6 points per game, but its underlying profile is shaky for stepping up in class: 16.5% offensive turnover rate (bottom-tier) and 66.8% at the line. Arizona’s defense is the separator, allowing just 0.89 points per possession with a 45.0% defensive effective FG rate and a 43.8% opponent 2P%. If LIU can’t get clean rim looks early, it’s hard to find “easy points” without living at the stripe.
LIU’s best path to functional offense is shot-making from deep (36.1% 3PT), but Arizona’s 3PT defense is solid (31.4% allowed). LIU also does not lean heavily into threes by volume (28.95% of attempts from 3), which limits the variance lever an underdog usually wants.
Arizona offense vs LIU defense
Arizona’s offense is elite at 1.27 points per possession, driven by efficiency and second chances: 55.1% effective FG and a 38.1% offensive rebounding rate. LIU’s defense is vulnerable on the glass (32.6% opponent offensive rebounding rate), which is a bad matchup against Arizona’s size and paint-first approach.
Arizona is also efficient without needing a high 3-point attempt rate (26.82% of shots from 3). That matters against an LIU defense that allows opponents to take a lot of threes (33.2% opponent 3PA/FGA), but Arizona can still score at a high clip even if the game turns into rim attacks, post touches, and put-backs.
Matchup Keys
- Turnovers: LIU’s offensive turnover rate (16.5%) runs into an Arizona defense that can win possessions even without forcing tons of live-ball chaos.
- Offensive rebounding: Arizona’s 38.1% offensive rebounding rate vs LIU allowing 32.6% is one of the clearest statistical gaps on the board.
- 3-point math (quality over volume): Both teams shoot about 36% from 3, but neither is a high-volume bombing team. That reduces “backdoor by threes” potential if Arizona controls the paint.
- Free throws and game state: LIU is at 66.8% FT for the season, which can hurt if they do get to the line or if a late cover depends on converting freebies.
- Tempo: Arizona plays faster (71.4) than LIU (69.0). If Arizona is comfortable, the second-half pace often drops with bench-heavy possessions, which matters for the total.
Best Bet
Under 151.5 (-105).
Arizona’s defense (0.89 points allowed per possession) creates a narrow margin for LIU to reach the implied 60-point range without unsustainably hot shooting. Add in LIU’s turnover issues (16.5% TO rate) and poor free-throw shooting (66.8%), and empty possessions can pile up quickly. On the Arizona side, the Wildcats can score efficiently, but this is also the type of spread where late-game minutes skew toward reserves and longer possessions, which is typically friendlier to the under than the over at a number this high.
Projected Score
Arizona 87, LIU 56
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