Kentucky and Missouri meet in the SEC Tournament 2nd Round on Thursday, March 12, 2026 at 12:30 p.m. ET at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee (neutral court). Missouri is the No. 8 seed and Kentucky is the No. 9 seed, with both teams finishing 10-8 in SEC play.
Kentucky enters off a March 11 win over LSU (short rest), while Missouri last played March 7 (more rest). The market has Kentucky laying 3.5 points with a mid-to-high 140s total.
Odds
Odds as of 8:46 a.m. ET on March 12, 2026 from BetOnline.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Kentucky -3.5 (-102) Missouri +3.5 (-120) | Kentucky -154 Missouri +128 | Over 148.5 (-115) Under 148.5 (-105) |
Team Snapshot
This table snapshots each team’s profile heading into tip.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kentucky | 20-12 | 5-5 | 15-16-0 | 1.21 (41) | 0.99 (46) | 69.2 (176) | Jayden Quaintance (knee) out; Jaland Lowe out for season |
| Missouri | 20-11 | 6-4 | 14-17-0 | 1.18 (64) | 1.05 (134) | 67.9 (252) | Annor Boateng (leg) out for season; Jevon Porter (lower leg) questionable |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Kentucky
Kentucky has gone 3-2 in its last five games and is averaging 81.4 points per game on the season while allowing 74.0. In efficiency terms, the Wildcats are strong on both ends (1.21 offensive efficiency, 0.99 defensive efficiency) and play a mid-pack tempo (69.2 possessions per 40 minutes).
The clearest “traveling” strengths are shot quality defense and ball security: Kentucky holds opponents to 31.94% from three and posts a 12.93% offensive turnover rate. If Kentucky generates its usual clean looks without giving possessions away, it can outscore Missouri even without needing a big 3-point shooting spike (34.65% from three).
Missouri
Missouri is 2-3 in its last five games, scoring 79.9 points per game while allowing 75.3. The Tigers’ offense is built to pressure defenses inside and at the line: 57.21% on twos, a 42.48 FTA/FGA rate, and a 35.50% offensive rebounding rate (extra possessions plus free throws).
The liability is perimeter defense. Missouri is allowing 36.73% from three and a 51.35% opponent effective FG%, which can be a problem against a Kentucky offense that is efficient even when it is not running hot from deep.
Matchup Keys
- Rest and legs: Kentucky is on a back-to-back after playing March 11, while Missouri hasn’t played since March 7.
- Perimeter swing: Missouri allows 36.73% from three, while Kentucky’s offense is league-average from deep (34.65%) but can get volume (39.22 3PA/FGA).
- Turnovers: Kentucky’s offense protects the ball (12.93% TO rate). Missouri’s defense is not a major takeaway unit (14.55% forced TO rate), so Missouri may need to win elsewhere (glass, free throws).
- Offensive rebounding: Missouri crashes hard (35.50% ORB rate). Kentucky’s defensive rebounding profile is solid (opponents 29.41% ORB), and holding that line keeps Missouri from getting easy second-chance points.
- Free-throw pressure: Missouri’s offense gets to the line at a high rate (42.48 FTA/FGA). If Kentucky compounds that with fouls, the total can climb quickly in a neutral-court tournament setting.
Best Bet
Over 148.5 (-115)
Both offenses are built for efficient possessions: Kentucky grades out as a top-70 offense by efficiency (1.21 PPP), and Missouri is not far behind (1.18 PPP). Missouri’s profile also pushes scoring in a way that can survive cold stretches, with a high free-throw attempt rate and strong offensive rebounding. The main risk is Kentucky’s short rest slowing the pace, but Missouri’s defensive numbers (1.05 PPP allowed and 36.73% allowed from three) give Kentucky a clean path to scoring even if the game is not played fast.
Projected Score
Kentucky 78, Missouri 74
21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.