Iowa vs Ohio State tips Thursday, March 12, 2026 at 12:00 p.m. ET from the United Center in Chicago (Big Ten Tournament, No. 9 seed vs No. 8 seed).
The market is essentially a pickem with Ohio State laying 1.5 and a 139.5 total. Ohio State went 12-8 in Big Ten play, while Iowa entered the tournament at 10-10 in conference.
Odds
Odds as of 8:38 a.m. ET on March 12, 2026, from BetOnline.
| Market | Iowa | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-115) | -1.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -105 | -114 |
| Total | Over 139.5 (-105) | Under 139.5 (-115) |
Team Snapshot
This table highlights record, form, and a few pace and efficiency indicators.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 21-11 (Home 14-3, Away 3-8, Neutral 4-0) | 4-6 | 18-14 | 1.22 | 0.99 | 64.5 | No major injury updates were provided for this matchup. |
| Ohio State | 20-11 (Home 14-3, Away 5-6, Neutral 1-2) | 6-4 | 15-15-1 | 1.24 | 1.02 | 68.5 | Brandon Noel (foot) has been day-to-day. Puff Johnson (foot) recently missed time. |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Iowa
Iowa enters off a Wednesday win, which creates a rest disadvantage versus an Ohio State team that last played March 7. Overall production has leaned defense first: 75.4 points per game scored and 65.8 allowed, with a +9.6 scoring margin.
On shot-making, Iowa is at 35.4% from three while holding opponents to 33.8% from three. The biggest repeatable edge in this matchup is ball security and takeaways: 9.7 turnovers per game on offense, 13.5 forced per game on defense, and a +3.8 turnover margin (with an offensive turnover rate of 13.45%).
Ohio State
Ohio State’s baseline scoring is higher than Iowa’s: 80.5 points per game scored and 73.0 allowed (+7.5 margin). The Buckeyes also bring the cleaner perimeter profile: 36.3% from three while holding opponents to 31.1% from three.
Tempo is meaningfully quicker than Iowa’s (68.5 vs 64.5), but it is still not a “run-and-gun” setup. Ohio State has been more average in creating extra possessions: 10.5 turnovers per game with opponents at 10.7, essentially even on turnover margin, so the Buckeyes’ path is more about half-court shot quality than live-ball chaos.
Matchup Keys
- Pace control: Iowa plays slow (64.5 tempo) and generally benefits if this turns into a half-court game, while Ohio State is more comfortable a few possessions faster (68.5).
- 3-point defense edge: Ohio State’s opponent 3PT% allowed (31.1%) is a clear strength, and Iowa’s offense is only mid-pack from three (35.4%).
- Turnovers decide the close games: Iowa is +3.8 in turnover margin (9.7 committed, 13.5 forced), while Ohio State is close to neutral, so Iowa’s best upset path is winning the possession battle.
- Rebounding is not a blowout lever: Both teams are positive on the glass (Iowa +0.8 rebounding margin; Ohio State +2.4), so one team pulling away via second-chance points is less likely than the turnover and 3-point outcomes.
- Rest and legs: Iowa is on a back-to-back after playing March 11, while Ohio State comes in with multiple days off, which matters most for defensive effort and late-game shooting legs.
Best Bet
Under 139.5 (-115).
Both teams have a realistic route to keep efficiency in check: Iowa’s defense has allowed 65.8 points per game and Ohio State’s 3-point defense has held opponents to 31.1% from deep. The pace matchup also points under, with Iowa sitting at a 64.5 tempo and an incentive to shorten the game, especially on a back-to-back. If Iowa’s turnover edge shows up, that also tends to suppress clean Ohio State half-court possessions and limit easy transition points.
Projected Score
Ohio State 71, Iowa 67.
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