Iowa and Nebraska meet Thursday, March 26, 2026 at 7:30 p.m. ET in the NCAA Tournament South Regional (neutral site in Houston, Texas). Nebraska finished 2nd in the Big Ten (15-6), while Iowa finished 9th (11-11).
Nebraska is priced as a small favorite on the spread and moneyline, with a lower-paced total in the mid-130s. Odds as of 12:00 p.m. ET on March 23, 2026.
Odds
| Market | Iowa Hawkeyes | Nebraska Cornhuskers |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-112) | -2.5 (-108) |
| Moneyline | +118 | -142 |
| Total | Over 133.5 (-110) | Under 133.5 (-110) |
Team Snapshot
| Team | Record | Last 10 | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 23-12 | 5-5 | 1.160 | 1.022 | 64.6 poss/gm |
| Nebraska | 28-6 | 7-3 | 1.122 | 0.957 | 68.8 poss/gm |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa’s path here has been defense plus ball security: 1.160 offensive efficiency with a 13.4% turnover rate, and they force turnovers on 18.2% of opponent plays. The pace is slow (64.6 possessions per game), which keeps most Hawkeye games possession-by-possession.
The shot profile is balanced, with a 42.0% three-point rate and 35.3% 3PT shooting, but the defense has been more volatile from deep (33.7% opponent 3PT). Iowa is coming in with 3 days rest (last played March 22).
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Nebraska’s edge is efficiency on the defensive end: 0.957 defensive efficiency, 47.7% opponent effective FG%, and just 30.1% opponent 3PT. That defensive baseline travels, even when the offense is not shooting well.
Offensively, Nebraska is more three-heavy (50.7% three-point rate) while still hitting at 35.5% from deep, and they take care of the ball (12.7% turnovers). Nebraska has 4 days rest (last played March 21).
Matchup Keys
- Tempo control: Iowa wants a 64.6-possession game; Nebraska plays faster (68.8). If Nebraska dictates pace, Iowa’s margin for error shrinks.
- Perimeter volume vs. perimeter defense: Nebraska’s 50.7% 3PT rate meets an Iowa defense allowing 33.7% from three, while Nebraska’s defense allows only 30.1% opponent 3PT.
- Turnovers: Iowa forces turnovers at an 18.2% clip, but Nebraska’s offense is relatively clean (12.7% turnovers per play).
- Free throw pressure: Iowa draws more contact (26.3% FTA per play), but Nebraska’s lower foul profile (18.5% personal fouls per play) can limit “free” points.
- Rebounding percentages: Iowa has a small offensive-rebounding edge (28.8% ORB%), but Nebraska is solid on the defensive glass (74.7% opponent defensive rebounding rate).
Best Bet
Nebraska -2.5 (-108)
Nebraska has the cleaner two-way profile entering this one, especially on defense (0.957 defensive efficiency and 30.1% opponent 3PT). Iowa’s offense is efficient, but Nebraska’s ability to defend without fouling and contest threes is a strong fit against how Iowa scores in the half court. With Nebraska also owning the better net efficiency (1.122 minus 0.957) and slightly more rest, laying the short number is reasonable.
Projected Score
Nebraska 68, Iowa 65
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