Iowa and Illinois meet Saturday, March 28, 2026 at 6:09 p.m. ET in Houston, Texas (neutral site). Illinois opened as the favorite, with the market sitting at Illinois -6.5 and a total of 138.5.
This is a Big Ten matchup in the NCAA Tournament, and both teams are on the same one-day turnaround after playing in Houston on Thursday (March 26). Odds as of 10:40 a.m. ET on March 27, 2026.
Odds
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Illinois -6.5 (-110) Iowa +6.5 (-110) | Illinois -280 Iowa +225 | Over 138.5 (-110) Under 138.5 (-110) |
Team Snapshot
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa | 24-12 (Home 15-3, Away 3-8, Neutral 6-1) | 5-5 | 21-15 | 1.163 pts/poss | 1.026 pts allowed/poss | 64.5 poss/gm | Peyton McCollum (G) OUT; Trey Thompson (F) OUT |
| Illinois | 27-8 (Home 14-3, Away 8-2, Neutral 5-3) | 7-3 | 21-14 | 1.232 pts/poss | 1.010 pts allowed/poss | 68.3 poss/gm | Jason Jakstys (F) OUT; Ty Rodgers (G) OUT |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is 5-5 over its last 10 (4-1 last five), with a three-game winning streak entering Saturday. The Hawkeyes play slower (64.5 possessions per game) and lean on ball pressure: opponents are turning it over on 18.1% of plays, while Iowa’s own turnover rate is a manageable 13.2%.
Shooting profile is solid but not a volume edge here: 35.6% from three with opponents at 33.7% from three. The bigger concern is on the glass versus elite rebounding teams. Iowa averages 29.6 rebounds per game while allowing 28.6, a +1.0 rebounding margin, and its offensive rebounding rate is 28.4%.
Totals context: Iowa games have leaned slightly Over (20 overs, 16 unders).
Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois is 7-3 over its last 10 (4-1 last five) and brings the higher-possession profile (68.3 possessions per game) with better scoring efficiency (1.232 pts/poss). A key stabilizer in a turnover-driven matchup is ball security: Illinois is turning it over on just 11.0% of plays.
The Illini defense has been particularly strong against the three (opponents at 30.9% from three) and pairs that with a major offensive rebounding edge (38.8% offensive rebounding rate). Illinois averages 41.1 rebounds per game while allowing 30.9, a +10.2 rebounding margin.
Totals context: Illinois games have trended Under (15 overs, 20 unders), consistent with opponent shot suppression (47.3% opponent effective FG%).
Matchup Keys
- Possession battle: Iowa forces turnovers (18.1% opponent turnovers per play), but Illinois protects the ball (11.0% turnovers per play), which can neutralize Iowa’s most valuable defensive lever.
- Illinois on the glass: Illinois is at 38.8% offensive rebounding rate versus Iowa’s 73.5% defensive rebounding rate, and Illinois’ overall rebounding margin (+10.2) dwarfs Iowa’s (+1.0).
- 3-point prevention: Illinois allows 30.9% from three; Iowa allows 33.7%. If Iowa does not win the perimeter math, it gets harder to offset Illinois’ extra-chance opportunities.
- Foul rate gap: Iowa is committing fouls on 24.2% of plays, while Illinois is at 17.3%. On a neutral floor, free-throw efficiency and foul discipline often decide late covers.
- Rest and travel: Both teams played Thursday (March 26) in Houston and remain in the same city for Saturday, minimizing travel variables on a one-day turnaround.
Best Bet
Illinois -6.5 (-110)
Illinois checks more boxes for covering a mid-range number: better offensive efficiency (1.232 vs. 1.163), stronger shot defense (47.3% opponent effective FG%), and the clearest matchup advantage on the offensive glass (38.8% offensive rebounding rate). Iowa’s path is usually created by turning teams over, but Illinois’ 11.0% turnover rate makes that a tougher ask. If Illinois also keeps Iowa off the line given the foul-rate split, the Illini’s extra possessions are enough to separate.
Projected Score
Illinois 73, Iowa 66
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