Illinois and UConn meet in the national semifinal on Saturday, April 4 at 6:09 p.m. ET at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. UConn finished 2nd in the Big East (33-5), while Illinois finished 4th in the Big Ten (28-8).
Illinois is priced as a short favorite on the spread and moneyline, with a mid-130s total. Odds as of 10:23 AM ET on March 31, 2026.
Odds
| Market | Illinois | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -2.5 (-102) | +2.5 (-120) |
| Moneyline | -132 | +110 |
| Total | Over 139.5 (-112) | Under 139.5 (-108) |
Team Snapshot
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois | 28-8 (Home 14-3, Road 8-2, Neutral 6-3) | 7-3 | 22-14 | 125.2 ORtg | 102.9 DRtg | 66.9 Pace |
| UConn | 33-5 (Home 15-2, Road 9-2, Neutral 9-0 per team splits; cumulative stats list Neutral 9-1) | 8-2 | 15-23 | 115.0 ORtg | 96.8 DRtg | 66.8 Pace |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois enters 28-8 overall and 7-3 in its last 10, with strong split results away from home (8-2 road) and solid neutral-site volume (6-3). From a betting-results standpoint, Illinois has been profitable ATS (22-14) but has trended under (15 overs, 21 unders).
The profile starts with ball security and physicality. Illinois averages 83.8 points per game, shoots 34.8% from three while holding opponents to 31.1% from three, and owns a +10.3 rebounding margin. The turnover baseline is also elite for a high-usage offense: 8.8 turnovers per game and a 10.5% turnover rate (TOV%).
One relevant data point for this matchup: these teams played on Nov. 28, 2025 at UConn, a 74-61 UConn win.
UConn Huskies
UConn is 33-5 overall and 8-2 in its last 10, including heavy neutral-court success (9-0 in team splits). ATS results have been the opposite of Illinois: 15-23 ATS, with a near-even total split (18 overs, 19 unders, 1 push).
UConn’s edge is defense that travels. The Huskies allow 65.2 points per game, hold opponents to 30.7% from three, and pair that with a +5.5 rebounding margin. Offensively, UConn is efficient enough to punish mistakes (34.6% from three) but is looser with possessions than Illinois (13.7% TOV% and 11.1 turnovers per game).
Matchup Keys
- Turnovers: Illinois’ 10.5% TOV% vs UConn’s 13.7% TOV% is the cleanest possession edge on the board. In a one-off semifinal, extra empty trips tend to show up on the final margin.
- Perimeter shot quality: Both defenses run opponents off the line (Illinois opp 31.1% 3PT; UConn opp 30.7% 3PT). If either side is forced into midrange-heavy half-court possessions, the total gets pressured.
- Rebounding and second chances: Illinois (+10.3 reb margin) has been the more dominant glass team than UConn (+5.5), which matters if the stadium backdrop creates early-game shooting variance.
- Tempo: Both teams are in the same tempo band (Illinois 66.9 pace; UConn 66.8). This is unlikely to be a true track meet unless turnovers spike into transition.
Best Bet
Under 139.5 (-108)
Both teams bring top-end opponent three-point defense (Illinois 31.1% allowed, UConn 30.7% allowed), and neither plays fast enough to create easy volume (both around 66.8 possessions per game). Illinois’ low turnover rate also reduces the “free points” that inflate Final Four totals via runouts. With a dome setting and two teams that can win in the half court, the under has a path even if one offense is clean.
Projected Score
Illinois 71, UConn 67 (Total: 138)
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