Alabama and Hofstra meet in the NCAA Tournament first round on Friday, March 20, 2026 at 3:15 p.m. ET at Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida (neutral court). Alabama enters as the higher seed out of the SEC, while Hofstra is CAA-tested and arrives off its conference tournament run.
The market is pricing a comfortable Alabama win with a big favorite moneyline and a double-digit spread, plus a 159.5 total that asks whether Hofstra can keep Alabama’s pace from turning the game into a track meet. Odds as of 8:11 p.m. ET on March 16, 2026.
Odds
Here are the latest lines (as listed at MyBookie).
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama -11.5 (-120) | Hofstra +11.5 (-102) | Alabama -850 | Hofstra +580 | O 159.5 (-110) | U 159.5 (-110) |
Team Snapshot
The table below captures form, market results, and core efficiency indicators.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hofstra | 24-10 | 9-1 | 21-11 | 1.12 pts/poss | 1.05 pts/poss | 67.4 poss/g | No injuries reported |
| Alabama | 23-9 | 9-1 | 14-18 | 1.28 pts/poss | 1.02 pts/poss | 75.0 poss/g | Aden Holloway (questionable, personal); Keitenn Bristow (questionable); Davion Hannah (questionable); Collins Onyejiaka (out) |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Hofstra Pride
Hofstra is 9-1 straight up in its last 10, with a 7-3 ATS mark in that span. Season-long, the Pride’s profile is built to hang around: 36.8% from 3 (opponents 31.6%), plus a strong rebounding edge (39.3 rebounds per game vs 33.8 allowed, +5.5 margin). The trade-off is ball security, as Hofstra is at 10.6 turnovers per game (opponents 10.1), so the half-court execution has to be clean when Alabama speeds the game up. Rest is a plus here: Hofstra last played March 10, giving it a longer reset before the Friday tip.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama is also 9-1 straight up in its last 10, but it has been closer to a coin flip ATS lately (5-5 ATS last 10) and sits 14-18 ATS on the season. The Tide’s scoring environment is extreme: 91.7 points per game scored and 84.2 allowed, paired with a top-end pace (75.0 possessions per game) and efficient offense (1.28 points per possession). Alabama shoots 36.0% from 3 (opponents 33.7%) and plays a high-possession style that tends to stress underdogs over 40 minutes, but the injury report matters because any rotation thinning can show up most on defense and in late-game rebounding. Alabama last played March 13, so it’s on normal tournament rest.
Matchup Keys
- Pace battle: Alabama (75.0 poss/g) wants a track meet; Hofstra (67.4) benefits if it can force longer possessions and limit live-ball runouts.
- 3-point math: Hofstra’s opponent 3PT% allowed (31.6%) is a strength, but Alabama’s volume and efficiency from deep (36.0% as a team) can break defensive game plans fast.
- Rebounding margin: Hofstra is +5.5 rebounds per game, while Alabama is essentially even on the glass. If Hofstra can finish defensive possessions, the +11.5 becomes live.
- Turnovers and pressure: Hofstra turns it over 10.6 times per game. Alabama doesn’t need a huge turnover edge to cover, but extra possessions are how blowouts happen against slower underdogs.
- Foul and free throws: Alabama’s opponents are averaging fewer team fouls (13.9) than Alabama commits (15.9). If Hofstra can avoid early foul trouble, it helps keep scoring variance and pace down.
Best Bet
Hofstra +11.5 (-102). Hofstra’s season-long ATS record (21-11) and rebounding advantage (+5.5 per game) are the type of indicators that often translate on a neutral court when the underdog can control defensive possessions. Alabama’s profile still supports a win, but its 14-18 ATS mark suggests the market routinely prices in peak offense, and Hofstra’s opponent 3PT% (31.6%) gives it a real path to keep Alabama from separating with a barrage of threes. The biggest risk to the bet is game script: if turnovers fuel Alabama’s transition, the pace can snowball quickly.
Projected Score
Alabama 83, Hofstra 74
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