High Point (Big South champ) meets Wisconsin (Big Ten, 5th place) in a Round of 64 game on Thursday, March 19, 2026 at Moda Center in Portland, Oregon (1:50 p.m. ET).
Wisconsin is priced as the favorite with High Point taking +10.5 and a +390 moneyline in a matchup featuring two top-30 offenses by points per possession. The total is elevated at 164.5 for a neutral-court tournament game.
Odds
Odds from Bet105. Odds as of 7:51 p.m. ET on March 16, 2026.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| High Point +10.5 (-118); Wisconsin -10.5 (-104) | High Point +390; Wisconsin -530 | 164.5 (Over -115 / Under -105) |
Team Snapshot
This table highlights current form, betting results, and efficiency profile.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff (PPP) | Def Eff (PPP) | Tempo (poss/g) | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High Point | 30-4 | 10-0 | 15-16-0 | 1.23 | 1.01 | 72.1 | No major injury news listed as of March 16 |
| Wisconsin | 24-10 | 7-3 | 20-14-0 | 1.24 | 1.02 | 70.7 | Nolan Winter (ankle) missed time and was ruled out March 14; Jack Janicki (wrist) listed as possible |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
High Point
High Point enters on a 10-0 run in its last 10 and is built to create extra possessions: a 19.14% defensive turnover rate (top-5 nationally) paired with an 11.36% offensive turnover rate (top-10) is a strong combo for a double-digit underdog.
The shot profile is efficient rather than volume-3 heavy: 54.72% effective FG% (top-50) with a 57.06% 2P% (top-35). From deep they are at 34.40% (156th), but the defense travels well with opponents held to 31.92% from three (64th).
Free throws are a real scoring lever here: High Point’s FTA/FGA is 42.91 (23rd), which matters against a Wisconsin defense that does not force many turnovers (12.80% defensive turnover rate, 313th), meaning High Point should usually get shots up.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin’s offense is as clean as it gets: 1.24 points per possession (17th) with an 11.24% turnover rate (5th). That ball security directly attacks High Point’s biggest strength, forcing turnovers.
The Badgers are a volume 3-point team with 52.61% of attempts coming from three (6th), and they convert at 36.10% (53rd). If this becomes a math game, Wisconsin’s spacing plus elite free-throw shooting (78.57%, 12th) is a strong formula to separate late.
Defensively, Wisconsin is more middle-of-the-pack by efficiency (1.02 PPP allowed, 86th) and opponents do hit 33.25% from three (138th). That leaves some backdoor risk if High Point’s perimeter shooting shows up.
Matchup Keys
- Turnover battle: High Point forces turnovers on 19.14% of opponent possessions (top-5), but Wisconsin gives it away on only 11.24% of its possessions (top-5).
- 3-point math: Wisconsin’s 3PA/FGA is 52.61% (6th). High Point allows 31.92% from three, which is solid, but it has not faced this level of volume.
- Pace on a neutral floor: High Point plays faster (72.1 poss/g, 38th) than Wisconsin (70.7, 103rd). If Wisconsin dictates tempo, covering -10.5 gets cleaner.
- Free throws: High Point generates free throws (FTA/FGA 42.91, 23rd). Wisconsin converts at 78.57% (12th). Late-game fouling favors the better FT team if Wisconsin is up 8 to 12.
- Second-chance chances: Wisconsin’s offensive rebounding rate (29.42%) matches up with a High Point defense that is vulnerable on the glass by rate allowed (31.66% opponent OR%).
Best Bet
Wisconsin -10.5 (-104)
High Point’s path to an upset is usually turnover-driven, but Wisconsin’s elite ball security (11.24% offensive turnover rate) is a direct counter to High Point’s top-5 pressure. On offense, Wisconsin’s high-volume 3-point approach plus top-12 free-throw shooting creates separation opportunities even if High Point keeps the pace up. With High Point below .500 ATS on the season (15-16), the market has been a bit aggressive on their margins, and this is a major step up in opponent quality.
Projected Score
Wisconsin 86, High Point 75
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