George Washington (17-14, 8-10 A-10) and Fordham (17-14, 8-10 A-10) meet in the Atlantic 10 Tournament second round on Thursday morning at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh. With both teams tied in the regular-season standings, this is essentially a coin-flip profile game that comes down to style: GW wants pace and 3-point volume, Fordham wants a slower, half-court possession game.
The market has GW favored by 5.5 with a 140.5 total. Fordham’s season has leaned heavily to the under (5-15 O/U in lined games), while GW’s offense has been efficient enough to keep totals inflated even when the defense leaks points.
Odds
Odds are from BetOnline. Odds as of 8:38 a.m. ET on March 12, 2026.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| GW -5.5 (-114) | Fordham +5.5 (-106) | GW -260 | Fordham +210 | Over 140.5 (-110) | Under 140.5 (-110) |
Team Snapshot
Here’s a side-by-side snapshot of form, betting results, and efficiency profile.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GW Revolutionaries | 17-14 (12-4 home, 3-7 away, 2-3 neutral) | 4-6 | 12-13 | 1.18 pts/poss | 1.05 pts/poss allowed | 71.2 poss/gm | No confirmed absences; Rafael Castro and Bubu Benjamin were recently listed questionable (undisclosed) but were active March 7. |
| Fordham Rams | 17-14 (11-7 home, 4-6 away, 2-1 neutral) | 6-4 | 11-9 | 1.05 pts/poss | 1.01 pts/poss allowed | 66.7 poss/gm | Jack Whitbourn (back) missed recent games and was ruled out March 7; status should be monitored. |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
George Washington
GW brings the higher-octane offense: 82.6 points per game with a 1.18 points-per-possession efficiency and a fast tempo (71.2 poss/gm). The 3-point profile is a real separator: 35.5% from three (10.0 made threes per game) while opponents hit 33.3% against them, which matters in a matchup where Fordham can struggle to keep up from deep.
The concern is defense and recent consistency. GW allowed 73.6 points per game on the season, and over the last 10 they’re 4-6. In lined games they’re 12-13 O/U, reflecting how often their pace forces opponents into more possessions even when GW’s shot quality dips.
Fordham
Fordham plays slower (66.7 poss/gm) and wins with defense and the glass: 65.5 points allowed per game, 1.01 points allowed per possession, plus a +7.0 rebounding margin. That rebounding edge is not cosmetic either, since it can steal extra possessions even if the offense is inefficient early in the shot clock.
Offensively, Fordham is the lower-variance problem: 70.1 points per game, 1.05 points per possession, and just 29.4% from three (opponents: 33.4%). If the Rams don’t win second-chance points and free throws, they can be vulnerable to stretches where the scoring simply stalls. Their under trend is extreme (5-15 O/U in lined games), which is consistent with the pace and defensive efficiency.
Matchup Keys
- Tempo control: GW plays at 71.2 poss/gm vs Fordham at 66.7. If Fordham keeps this closer to its pace, +5.5 becomes more valuable.
- 3-point math: GW shoots 35.5% from three on heavy volume, while Fordham shoots 29.4%. That gap is the cleanest path to a GW cover if the game opens up.
- Rebounding battle: Both teams are strong, but Fordham’s +7.0 rebounding margin (GW +5.7) can generate the extra possessions an underdog needs to stay inside a two-possession spread.
- Turnover rate: Fordham protects the ball well (14.59% turnover rate; 11.5 turnovers per game). A low-turnover game tends to reduce “free points” that favorites rely on to create separation.
- Free-throw pressure: GW gets to the line more frequently (FTA/FGA 35.61). If Fordham is thin up front again, foul trouble can flip the script late.
Best Bet
Fordham +5.5 (-106)
Fordham’s pace (66.7 poss/gm) and defensive efficiency (1.01 pts/poss allowed) set up well for keeping a neutral-site tournament game within two possessions. The Rams also bring a legitimate possession advantage profile with a +7.0 rebounding margin and a strong ball-security number (14.59% turnover rate), which helps an underdog avoid the empty trips that create margin. GW’s offense is the best unit on the floor, but they are 4-6 in their last 10 and just 2-3 in neutral-site games, so laying 5.5 requires a cleaner performance than they’ve shown lately. The main risk is GW’s 3-point volume and efficiency (35.5%), which can break a spread quickly if Fordham’s perimeter defense slips.
Projected Score
George Washington 74, Fordham 70
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