Florida State and Duke meet Thursday, March 12 at 7:00 PM ET at Spectrum Center in Charlotte (ACC Tournament quarterfinal). Duke enters as the No. 1 seed, while Florida State is the No. 8 seed and coming off a win Wednesday night.
Duke is priced as a heavy favorite, laying 17.5 points with a 151.5 total. Odds as of 9:07 AM ET on March 12, 2026.
Odds
One table with the latest spread, moneyline, and total.
| Market | Line | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Duke -17.5 | -110 |
| Spread | Florida State +17.5 | -110 |
| Moneyline | Duke | -3500 |
| Moneyline | Florida State | +1280 |
| Total | Over 151.5 | -110 |
| Total | Under 151.5 | -110 |
Team Snapshot
A quick side-by-side snapshot of records, form, and core profile.
| Team | Record (Overall; Home/Away/Neutral) | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff (pts/100 poss) | Def Eff (pts allowed/100 poss) | Tempo (poss/gm) | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State | 18-14; 11-6 / 6-5 / 1-3 | 8-2 | 14-14 | 106.5 | 106.0 | 75.4 | Kobe MaGee (undisclosed) was listed as available Wednesday. |
| Duke | 29-2; 15-0 / 10-1 / 4-1 | 9-1 | 17-11 | 123.5 | 92.6 | 67.2 | Caleb Foster (foot) is out. Patrick Ngongba II (foot) has a note indicating potential NCAA tournament availability. |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Florida State
Florida State’s path to stay competitive is pace and volume threes. The Seminoles average 80.3 points per game and allow 77.9, with a fast estimated tempo (75.4 possessions per game). They are 8-2 in their last 10, but this is also their second straight day on the floor after Wednesday night’s win.
The shooting profile is high-variance: 32.9% from three on 31.5 attempts per game (10.4 makes per game), while allowing 34.8% from three and 9.5 opponent makes per game. Rebounding is a concern versus elite frontcourts: -2.3 boards per game overall.
Duke
Duke’s statistical base is defense plus control. The Blue Devils average 82.9 points per game and allow 62.5, with opponents shooting 38.9% overall and 30.1% from three. They also win the glass (+10.5 rebounds per game), which is a major lever against a Florida State team that has been negative on the boards.
Duke’s estimated tempo (67.2 possessions per game) is much slower than Florida State’s, and that pace control has shown up in results: Duke’s over/under record sits at 8-20. They also take care of the ball (10.4 turnovers per game, 15.5% turnover rate by possession estimate) while forcing 12.5 opponent turnovers per game.
Matchup Keys
- Tempo clash: Florida State plays fast (75.4 poss/gm est.), Duke plays slower (67.2). If Duke dictates pace, covering +17.5 gets tougher for FSU because possessions shrink.
- Rebounding margin gap: Duke +10.5 boards per game vs Florida State -2.3. Extra Duke possessions can snowball spreads quickly on a neutral floor.
- 3-point defense edge: Duke allows 30.1% from three, while Florida State shoots 32.9% and relies on 31.5 attempts per game. If those looks are contested, Florida State’s efficiency can dip fast.
- Turnover profile: Florida State’s turnover rate (19.2% est.) is notably higher than Duke’s (15.5% est.). Live-ball turnovers are a problem against a team that can turn defense into separation.
- Rest advantage: Duke is playing its first game of the ACC Tournament, while Florida State is on a one-day turnaround after playing Wednesday night.
Best Bet
Under 151.5 (-110)
Duke’s defense has been consistent all season (62.5 points allowed per game, 30.1% allowed from three), and their games have leaned heavily under (8 overs, 20 unders). Florida State’s pace and 3-point volume can push totals up, but the Seminoles are on short rest and face a profile that tends to slow games down and clean the defensive glass. With Duke also limiting opponent efficiency (92.6 defensive pts allowed per 100 possessions, unadjusted), Florida State likely needs an above-average shooting night to turn this into a true track meet.
Projected Score
Duke 85, Florida State 64
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