Florida Atlantic and North Texas meet in the American Conference tournament second round on Thursday, March 12 at 9:00 p.m. ET at Legacy Arena at the BJCC in Birmingham, Alabama (neutral floor). North Texas is the No. 6 seed (18-13, 9-9), while FAU is the No. 7 seed (18-14, 9-9) after its 63-59 win over Temple on Wednesday night.
The market has this essentially at a pick’em with a mid-130s total, and the winner moves on to face No. 3 Tulsa in the quarterfinals on Friday. Odds as of 9:12 a.m. ET on March 12, 2026.
Odds
This table reflects the current odds available at BetOnline.
| Market | Florida Atlantic | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -126 | +105 |
| Total | Over 136.5 (-115) | Under 136.5 (-105) |
Team Snapshot
Here’s a side-by-side look at form and core profile stats entering Thursday night.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Atlantic | 18-14 (Home 11-4, Away 4-8, Neutral 3-2) | 4-6 | 17-13 | 1.12 pts/poss | 1.03 pts/poss allowed | 71.7 poss/40 | Devin Vanterpool (ankle) missed vs Temple |
| North Texas | 18-13 (Home 12-5, Away 5-7, Neutral 1-1) | 6-4 | 15-14 | 1.05 pts/poss | 0.98 pts/poss allowed | 67.1 poss/40 | No new absence noted among regular starters |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Florida Atlantic
FAU’s offense is the more explosive unit in this matchup (1.12 points per possession), and it leans heavily into perimeter volume (3PA/FGA 38.25) with a 33.72% 3PT mark. The concern entering this one is that FAU just played a tight, physical game Wednesday night (63-59 vs Temple) and now turns around on short rest for a late tip.
From a betting-results standpoint, FAU is 17-13 ATS and 16-14 to the Over in lined games this season. On the glass, FAU has been the better rebounding team overall (+4.0 rebounding margin), which is one of the clearer matchup advantages it brings to a neutral-court setting.
North Texas
North Texas is built to win with defense and pace control: 0.98 points per possession allowed with a slower tempo (67.1 poss/40). The Mean Green also rate as a strong ball-pressure defense (18.61% opponent turnover rate), which matters against an FAU team that wants to play faster (71.7 poss/40) and generate early offense.
North Texas’ offensive limiter is shooting, especially from three (28.97% 3PT), but it compensates by getting to the line (FTA/FGA 38.59) and generating extra possessions via offensive rebounding rate (34.16%). For totals, North Texas has skewed Under (12-17 O/U in lined games), which fits its defensive identity.
Matchup Keys
- Tempo battle: FAU plays faster (71.7 poss/40) than North Texas (67.1). If North Texas dictates pace, fewer possessions make +1.5 more valuable.
- 3-point math: FAU shoots 33.72% from three and takes threes at a high rate, but North Texas holds opponents to 31.15% from three.
- Turnovers: North Texas’ defense forces turnovers at an elite rate (18.61%); FAU’s offensive turnover rate (15.27%) is not high, but the matchup pressure point favors the Mean Green.
- Rebounding: FAU’s +4.0 rebounding margin is a real edge versus a North Texas team that’s basically neutral on the glass (+0.1).
- Rest disadvantage: FAU played Wednesday night, while North Texas is stepping in fresh to begin its tournament.
Best Bet
North Texas +1.5 (-110).
This sets up as a possession-by-possession game where North Texas’ defense (0.98 points per possession allowed) and pace control (67.1 poss/40) can keep the margin tight even if FAU has the cleaner offensive ceiling. The rest spot also favors North Texas, since FAU is on a one-day turnaround after a late, close game. Add in North Texas’ ability to create turnovers (18.61% opponent turnover rate), and taking the points is the cleaner way to play a likely one-possession finish.
Projected Score
North Texas 69, Florida Atlantic 67.
21+. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.