Dayton heads to Wilmington to face UNC Wilmington on March 21, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET at Trask Coliseum.
The market has Dayton favored on the road, laying 2.5 with a 139.5 total. This is an A-10 vs CAA matchup featuring two teams that finished near the top of their leagues (Dayton 4th in the A-10, UNCW 1st in the CAA).
Odds
Odds as of 9:20 a.m. ET on March 20, 2026. Lines referenced from BetAnything.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | -2.5 (-110) | -145 | Over 139.5 (-110) |
| UNC Wilmington | +2.5 (-110) | +125 | Under 139.5 (-110) |
Team Snapshot
These numbers summarize where each team is right now.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | 24-11 (Away 7-5) | 8-2 | 15-19-0 | 108.8 | 101.6 | 68.6 poss/g | Evan Dickey (G) questionable; Jaron McKie (G) out (season) |
| UNC Wilmington | 27-6 (Home 15-3) | 8-2 | 16-15-0 | 114.7 | 101.0 | 67.0 poss/g | Craig Luster II (G) out (redshirt) |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Dayton Flyers
Dayton comes in 8-2 over its last 10 with a most recent win on March 18 (80-66). On the season, the Flyers score 74.5 PPG and allow 69.8 PPG, with a -1.1 rebounding margin (32.7 RPG vs 33.8 allowed).
The offensive profile is built on getting to the line (19.0 FT made per game) and generating extra possessions via defense: opponents average 14.5 turnovers per game, and Dayton’s forced turnover rate checks in at 21.0% (estimated). The concern matchup-wise is perimeter defense, with opponents shooting 35.9% from three against Dayton.
UNC Wilmington Seahawks
UNCW is also 8-2 in its last 10 and last played March 17, a 68-67 win at Yale. The Seahawks are scoring 76.8 PPG while holding opponents to 67.7 PPG, and they have a major possession edge via the glass at +6.8 rebounds per game (40.2 RPG vs 33.4 allowed).
UNCW’s shooting and shot defense combo is the clearest separator: 35.8% from three on offense, and 29.6% allowed from three on defense. Ball security has been steady (9.9 turnovers per game, 14.8% turnover rate estimated), which matters against a Dayton defense that thrives on disruption.
Matchup Keys
- Rebounding battle: UNCW is +6.8 rebounds per game, while Dayton is -1.1. If the Seahawks hold serve on the glass, it blunts Dayton’s turnover-driven edge.
- Turnovers vs ball security: Dayton forces 14.5 turnovers per game and a 21.0% forced turnover rate (estimated), but UNCW commits only 9.9 turnovers per game.
- 3-point prevention: UNCW allows 29.6% from three; Dayton allows 35.9%. That’s a meaningful gap in a game lined inside one possession.
- Pace is moderate: Both teams live in the upper-60s in possessions (Dayton 68.6, UNCW 67.0 estimated), so the efficiency swings on second-chance points and live-ball turnovers.
- Free throw environment: Dayton gets to the line consistently (19.0 FT made per game). If UNCW avoids foul trouble, it forces Dayton to score more from the field.
Best Bet
UNC Wilmington +2.5 (-110)
UNCW’s profile fits well for a home underdog: strong rebounding margin (+6.8 RPG) and elite 3-point defense (29.6% allowed) create a stable baseline that travels well to close games. Dayton’s biggest advantage is generating turnovers (21.0% forced turnover rate estimated), but UNCW’s low turnover rate (14.8% estimated) is a direct counter. With both teams on similar recent form (8-2 last 10), taking the points at Trask Coliseum is the cleaner angle than laying a short road number.
Projected Score
UNC Wilmington 73, Dayton 71
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