Dayton heads to Peoria for a tight-lined matchup with Bradley on Wednesday, March 18, 2026 at 9:00 PM ET at Carver Arena.
The market is essentially pricing this near a coin flip, with Dayton a small road favorite. Conference context: Dayton finished 4th in the Atlantic 10, while Bradley finished 2nd in the Missouri Valley.
Odds
One snapshot of the current market prices for side and total.
| Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|
| Dayton -1.5 (-105) | Bradley +1.5 (-115) | Dayton -118 | Bradley -102 | O 143.5 (-115) | U 143.5 (-105) |
Odds as of 7:43 PM ET on March 16, 2026.
Team Snapshot
A quick comparison of baseline form, efficiency, and availability.
| Team | Record | Last 10 | ATS | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | 23-11 | 8-2 | 15-19-0 | 1.10 | 0.99 | 68.9 | Evan Dickey (questionable, undisclosed); Jaron McKie (out, shoulder, season) |
| Bradley | 21-12 | 6-4 | 13-19-0 | 1.13 | 1.04 | 71.0 | Matthew Zobrist (questionable, undisclosed) |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Dayton
Dayton’s recent results have skewed low scoring: 11-23-0 to the total on the season, and its last 10 games (8-2) have featured consistent unders. From an efficiency standpoint, Dayton is driven by defense (0.99 points allowed per possession) and disruption: opponents are turning it over on 18.65% of trips (defensive turnover rate).
The shot-profile swing factor is the arc. Dayton shoots 34.13% from three, but allows 35.64% to opponents, so clean Bradley catch-and-shoot looks can quickly change the scoring environment. On the glass, Dayton is slightly negative overall (32.9 rebounds per game vs 33.9 allowed, about -1.0 per game).
Bradley
Bradley’s season-long scoring profile has played faster and higher variance (71.0 tempo), with a 19-13-0 O/U record and 6-4 in its last 10. Offensively, the Braves’ calling card is ball security (12.26% turnover rate), which matters directly against a Dayton defense that thrives on extra possessions.
Bradley’s spacing is real (35.82% from three), but it comes with a clear defensive leak: opponents are hitting 36.30% from deep against them. Rebounding has not been a consistent edge (34.5 boards per game vs 36.7 allowed, about -2.2 per game), so clean box-outs are important if they want to fully leverage their turnover discipline.
Matchup Keys
- Turnovers vs pressure: Bradley’s 12.26% offensive turnover rate vs Dayton forcing turnovers on 18.65% of defensive possessions is the possession battle that can decide a one-possession spread.
- 3-point environment: Both defenses are vulnerable on the perimeter (Dayton allows 35.64% 3PT; Bradley allows 36.30%), so whichever side creates higher-quality threes gains a fast path to separation.
- Tempo control: Dayton plays slower (68.9) than Bradley (71.0). If Dayton dictates pace, it supports a grind and keeps Bradley’s volume scoring in check.
- Rebounding margin: Neither team profiles as a consistent rebounding winner (Dayton about -1.0 per game; Bradley about -2.2 per game), so second-chance points may come down to effort and matchups rather than identity.
- Free throws: Dayton generates free throws at an elite rate (FTA/FGA 47.09), which can stabilize offense on the road if whistles show up early.
Best Bet
Bradley moneyline (-102).
Bradley’s strongest matchup-based path is taking care of the ball at an elite level (12.26% turnover rate) against a Dayton defense that wants turnovers to fuel its offense. In a near pick’em, Bradley also benefits from being at home at Carver Arena and entering with significantly more rest, while Dayton is on a shorter turnaround after playing March 15. If Bradley avoids live-ball turnovers, the Braves’ 35.82% 3-point shooting lines up well against a Dayton perimeter defense that has allowed 35.64% from three.
Projected Score
Bradley 73, Dayton 70
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