Dayton visits George Washington on Friday, February 27, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET at the Charles E. Smith Center in Washington, D.C. This is an Atlantic 10 rematch after Dayton won 79-72 at home on January 6.
In the A-10 race, Dayton enters 10-5 in conference play and George Washington is 7-8, with both teams still fighting for positioning headed into the final stretch of the regular season.
Odds
Here are the latest listed lines for this matchup.
Odds as of 10:55 AM ET on February 27, 2026. Lines referenced from BetAnything.
| Market | Dayton | George Washington |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +146 | -170 |
| Total | Over 152.5 (-110) | Under 152.5 (-110) |
Team Snapshot
This table summarizes season-to-date results and a few pace and efficiency indicators.
| Team | Record (Home/Road) | Last 10 | ATS | O/U | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayton | 19-9 (4-5 road) | 5-5 | 13-15-0 | 11-17-0 | 109.4 | 101.2 | 69.6 | Bryce Heard (Q), Evan Dickey (Q); Javon McKie (OUT, season) |
| George Washington | 16-12 (11-3 home) | 4-6 | 14-13-0 | 13-14-0 | 117.6 | 100.1 | 71.1 | Garrett Johnson (Q) plus multiple rotation players listed questionable; Rafael Castro recently returned from a foot injury |
Note: Off Eff and Def Eff are points scored/allowed per 100 possessions estimated from season totals using a standard possession formula; Tempo is estimated possessions per game.
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Dayton Flyers
Dayton has stabilized after a rough late-January and early-February stretch, and it enters this trip having won four straight games (all by double digits). The most recent result was a 77-62 win over Saint Louis on February 24, which matters in this handicap because it showed Dayton can win without needing an above-average 3-point night, leaning instead on pressure defense and free throws.
Stylistically, Dayton’s defensive identity is clear. Opponents are turning it over 15.3 times per game, and on a per-possession basis Dayton is forcing turnovers on 21.9% of opponent possessions. That disruption travels because it is less dependent on shooting variance and more dependent on ball pressure, passing-lane activity, and converting live-ball mistakes into points.
The tradeoff is on the perimeter. On the season, Dayton is allowing 36.1% from 3 and 8.3 made threes per game, which is the cleanest pathway for George Washington to separate on the scoreboard at home. If Dayton cannot run shooters off the line or at least force a few empty possessions early in the shot clock, it risks playing catch-up in a building where GW has been efficient.
On offense, Dayton is not a high-volume 3-point team (33.9% from 3, with 3PA making up about 40.7% of its field-goal attempts), and it has been at its best when it gets to the line. The Flyers have attempted 730 free throws in 28 games (26.1 FTA per game), and that constant rim pressure is one reason they can keep games close even when the 3s are not falling.
Rebounding is the other swing factor. Dayton is being out-rebounded by 1.4 boards per game and is giving up 10.3 offensive rebounds per game. That becomes a bigger concern against a GW team that creates extra possessions on the glass.
George Washington Revolutionaries
George Washington’s profile is the opposite of Dayton’s in one key way: it can win games with shot-making even when the turnover battle is not perfect. The Revolutionaries are averaging 83.6 points per game, shooting 47.5% overall and 35.9% from 3, and they are on pace to finish among the top A-10 teams in made threes.
Volume is a major part of the matchup. GW has taken 793 threes in 28 games (28.3 attempts per game), meaning nearly half of its shots come from deep (3PA/FGA about 46.5%). That is a direct test of Dayton’s perimeter defense, and it is also the biggest reason the total can get pushed into the mid 150s quickly if GW is hitting early.
The second GW edge is on the glass. The Revolutionaries are +5.9 rebounds per game overall (37.7 vs 31.8), and they are generating 12.5 offensive rebounds per game. Against a Dayton team that is slightly negative in rebound margin, second-chance points are a realistic separator, especially if Dayton’s first-shot defense forces misses but cannot end possessions.
Defensively, GW has done a strong job guarding the arc, holding opponents to 32.9% from 3 (8.1 made threes allowed per game). That matters against a Dayton offense that is more comfortable winning with free throws and turnovers than with a barrage of 3s, because it can reduce Dayton’s “quick run” potential if the first few threes do not drop.
The risk for GW is ball security against Dayton’s pressure. GW is turning it over 12.6 times per game, and Dayton is specifically built to speed teams up. If those turnovers become live-ball runouts, it can flatten GW’s rebounding advantage and create a game script where GW is forced to defend in transition more than it wants.
Matchup Keys
- Turnovers and transition points: Dayton forces turnovers on 21.9% of opponent possessions, while GW forces turnovers on roughly 21.7% of opponent possessions. Both teams can create short-court offense, so the side that avoids sloppy, live-ball giveaways is in better shape.
- 3-point math: GW shoots 35.9% from 3 and gets high volume (about 28.3 attempts per game). Dayton allows 36.1% from 3. If GW is even modestly above average, the -3.5 favorite tag becomes easier to justify.
- Rebounding margin and second chances: GW is +5.9 rebounds per game and averages 12.5 offensive boards. Dayton is -1.4 rebounds per game and allows 10.3 offensive rebounds per game, so this is a real possession-count edge for the home team.
- Free-throw profile: Dayton attempts 26.1 free throws per game and has a strong free-throw scoring base. GW’s defense has allowed 19.6 FTA per game, so if the whistle is quiet, Dayton’s most reliable scoring lever is reduced.
- Pace: Both teams play at a moderate tempo (estimated 69.6 possessions per game for Dayton and 71.1 for GW). This does not project as a true grind, but it also is not a pure track meet unless turnovers spike the possession count.
Best Bet
Best Bet: Under 152.5 (-110)
Even with GW’s shooting and offensive rebounding, the Under has a reasonable path because Dayton’s defense is holding opponents to 70.7 points per game while generating turnovers at an elite rate, and GW’s recent game scripts have leaned more toward defensive control than shootouts. Both teams also defend well enough to keep the opponent from getting clean, early-clock looks on every trip, especially if the ball pressure forces each offense deeper into possessions. With the first meeting landing at 151 total points and Dayton’s recent wins coming with defense-first stretches, a low-150s total is a number that can be tight to clear without a hot 3-point night.
Projected Score
George Washington 77, Dayton 72
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