Arizona and Arkansas meet in the NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 on Thursday, March 26 at 9:45 PM ET on a neutral court.
Arizona enters as the top Big 12 team (1st place, 19-2 in conference) and has been rolling with an 11-game win streak. Arkansas finished 2nd in the SEC (16-5) and comes in on a 7-game win streak.
Odds
Odds as of 10:06 AM ET on March 23, 2026.
| Market | Arkansas | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +8.5 (-110) | -8.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +315 | -410 |
| Total | 166.5 (Over -115, Under -105) | |
Team Snapshot
| Team | Record | Last 10 | Off Eff | Def Eff | Tempo | Key Injury Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 28-8 (2nd SEC, 16-5) | W7 streak | 1.200 pts/poss (#3) | 1.067 pts/poss allowed (#200) | 75.2 poss/gm (#16) | No confirmed update available |
| Arizona | 34-2 (1st Big 12, 19-2) | W11 streak | 1.180 pts/poss (#9) | 0.938 pts/poss allowed (#6) | 72.9 poss/gm (#67) | No confirmed update available |
Recent Form & Statistical Edge
Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas is built to play fast and score: #3 in offensive efficiency (1.200 points per possession) and #16 in tempo (75.2 possessions per game). Ball security is also a plus with a 10.6% turnover rate, which matters against an Arizona defense that tends to pressure possessions.
The concern is on the other end. Arkansas ranks #200 in defensive efficiency (1.067 points allowed per possession), which is a tough profile to carry as an underdog against an elite two-way opponent on a neutral floor.
Arizona Wildcats
Arizona’s edge starts with defense: #6 in defensive efficiency (0.938 points allowed per possession) and #1 in opponent effective FG% allowed (44.8%). They also defend the arc well (31.1% opponent 3PT), which helps limit quick runs in a high-total game.
Arizona has multiple ways to separate. They rebound at a high level (43.1 boards per game vs 31.5 allowed, a +11.6 rebounding margin) and consistently get to the line (0.439 FTA/FGA, plus 19.4 free throws made per game). Offensively they are still top-10 efficient at 1.180 points per possession.
Matchup Keys
- Arizona offense vs Arkansas defense: Arizona is #9 in offensive efficiency (1.180 pts/poss) facing an Arkansas defense that ranks #200 (1.067 allowed).
- Arkansas pace push: Arkansas plays faster (#16 tempo at 75.2 poss/gm) than Arizona (#67 at 72.9), which raises total-variance and helps an underdog if shot-making holds.
- Turnover rate gap: Arkansas (10.6% turnover rate) is cleaner than Arizona (12.8%), a potential path to staying within one possession band if the defensive glass holds.
- Arizona rebounding and free throws: Arizona’s rebounding advantage (+11.6 per game) and frequent trips to the line can create separation even if 3-point volume stays modest.
- 3-point prevention: Arizona allows just 31.1% from three, reducing the easiest way for an underdog to swing a neutral-site game quickly.
Best Bet
Arizona -8.5 (-110). Arizona has the defensive profile you want laying points in March (#6 defensive efficiency, #1 opponent eFG%), and the matchup lines up well against an Arkansas defense sitting #200 in efficiency allowed. If Arizona controls the glass (they are +11.6 rebounds per game) and continues to generate free throws, they can cover without needing a huge 3-point attempt edge. Arkansas’s pace and offensive efficiency keep the backdoor in play, but the Razorbacks’ defensive efficiency is the biggest risk factor when taking points.
Projected Score
Arizona 86, Arkansas 78
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