Winning teams get the most attention—from fans and gamblers. It is not hard to figure out why, either. Who does not like a winner? Everyone does! Gamblers typically pick who they think will win. But that decision could be influenced by how bad the other team is, making it easy to pick a winner.
Fans and gamblers naturally gravitate towards winning teams. However, there is one way in which gamblers can pick a winner by studying the losers—and figuring out who will lose the most.
The favorites, according to the oddsmakers at MyBookie.ag, should come as no surprise:
- Jacksonville Jaguars +225
- Washington Redskins +550
- Carolina Panthers +600
- Cincinnati Bengals +650
- Miami Dolphins, New York Jets +1000
- New York Giants, Detroit Lions +1400
- Las Vegas Raiders +1600
- Los Angeles Chargers, Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals +2200
- Houston Texans +2500
- Denver Broncos +3000
- Chicago Bears +3300
- Los Angeles Rams, Cleveland Browns +3500
- Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots +5000
- Tennessee Titans, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers +5500
- Minnesota Vikings +6000
- Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6600
- Dallas Cowboys, Pittsburgh Steelers +8000
- Philadelphia Eagles +9000
- New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, Kansas City Chiefs +10000
Barring several injuries or some other kind of catastrophe, the team with the most regular-season losses will not be the Denver Broncos or someone with longer odds. All of those teams are good enough to win at least a handful of games (except maybe the Bears).
That leaves Jacksonville, Washington, Carolina, Cincinnati, Miami, Jets, Giants, Lions, Raiders, Chargers, Falcons, Cardinals, and Texans.
Houston is an excellent dark horse candidate, but only if the rash of injuries that happen every year comes early. Arizona was not terrible last year. But if Kyler Murray suffers the dreaded sophomore slump, they could be a good candidate as well.
The question mark at quarterback makes the Chargers a decent choice. If Jon Gruden can’t get Derek Carr on track and performing early in the season, the Raiders could struggle. As for the Lions, they are a bad team that can’t seem to improve from one season to the next. There is no reason to think they will improve this season.
The Jets and Dolphins are at least going to win seven games (like last year). That leaves the Jaguars, Washington, the Panthers, and Bengals, who are all great candidates to be at the bottom of the standings this year.
So—who should you bet on?
Jacksonville does not deserve to be the favorite. They were a seven-win team last season and will likely win at least five this year (if not more). If Joe Burrow can assimilate to the NFL game, the Bengals have a good enough roster for five wins.
Despite losing their head coach and quarterback, the Panthers are probably good for at least five (on the legs of Christian McCaffery alone).
Washington is your safe bet. But if you feel like taking on some risk, take the Texans. Should the injury- bug strike all of Houston’s brittle, injury-prone guys early, the Texans will be in trouble. If you don’t want as much risk but still want a longshot, go with the Lions.